Win toss, win match? Not anymore

The 2023 World Cup has seen a lot of unpredictability. While the unexpected downfall of the 2019 Champions England is the major highlight, an unforeseen rise of Afghanistan has made many feel good about the sport. The toss has also been, guess what, Unpredictable!

Generally, the toss plays a crucial part, especially in Asian conditions. The toss was a deciding factor in the last major ICC tournament in Asia: the T20 World Cup 2021. In fact, the toss affected the previous two tournaments in Asia. However, this hasn't been the case in this World Cup. 

Apart from hosts, India, none of the teams have been able to judge the surface. The perfect example is England. They won six tosses out of the eight they played and went on to win only one game (against the Netherlands). 

Throughout this World Cup, teams winning the toss have won only 32.5% of the games. The toss-win match win percentage is the lowest across 13 editions of the ODI World Cup. Only in the 1979 edition was the win% below 40 - showing you how toss isn’t really the factor. 

If we take out India, who have won all their matches after winning the toss (3 matches), very few teams have a win % of above 40. On the other hand, New Zealand have won two out of the four games they have won the toss (50%). South Africa, on the other hand, won the toss twice but only once finished on the winning side.

Even in the 2011 edition of the World Cup, India was a difficult country to judge for captains. In the 29 matches played in India, teams won 44.8% of the games when they won the toss. The percentage was higher in Sri Lanka (45.4% in 12 games) and Bangladesh (50% in eight).

It is just not the 2011 edition or the 2023 one. Historically, the toss hasn't played a crucial part in any of the World Cup in India. In the 1987 edition, 17 matches were played in India and ten in Pakistan. While teams had a win % of 70 when they won the toss in Pakistan, it was down to 23.5% in India.  

The percentage was higher in the 1996 World Cup (38.9%) but not above 40%. Overall, teams have won 35.6% of the games when they have won the toss in all World Cups in India - the lowest in a host country with 10+ matches. It is not just in India. Even in Sri Lanka, the toss is not that big a deciding factor at the World Cup. 

T20Is, though, are different

However, the T20Is paint a different story. Before the 2023 WC, the sub-continent had hosted two major ICC events in recent times. The 2016 T20 World Cup in India and the 2021 edition in the United Arab Emirates. 

Teams winning the toss went on to win the match in 60 or more % of the games in those events. 66.6% of the games were won by the teams winning the toss in 2021 and 63.6% in the 2016 edition of the T20WC, the highest and the second-highest in an edition of T20 WC.

In Men's T20 World Cup history, teams winning the toss have won 66.7% of the matches in UAE and 63.6% in India, a massive 78.9% hike in results. 

The reason behind that is simple. Because of the evening start in T20Is, most captains feel the dew is going to play a part and choose to chase. Also, the smaller boundaries help the cause. In the 2021 edition of the T20 World Cup, teams opting to chase had won 71.8% of the games and 58.8% in 2016.

But when it comes to ODIs, the start is much earlier. Just to prove it by numbers, only in two ODI WC editions, teams opting to chase win above 50% of the games (1992 - 61.9% & 2015 - 52.1%). In the 2023 ODI WC, the percentage is down to 34.7%, the lowest after 1987. 

To summarize, it is easy for the teams to gauge in the shorter format but not in the longer form of white ball cricket. 

Note: All stats are till Match 40 of ICC Cricket World Cup 2023