Are South Africa in pole position to make it to WTC Final?

South Africa have strengthened their chances of qualifying for the final of World Test Championship 2023-25 by winning the first Test match against Bangladesh on October 24 (Thursday). The win has pushed them to fourth spot from sixth in the WTC points table; they have now leapfrogged New Zealand and have a PCT of 47.62%. 

The Proteas have five more Tests remaining with four of them scheduled to be played at home, against Pakistan (2 Tests) and Sri Lanka (2 Tests) respectively. If they win all their remaining five Tests, they will finish with a PCT of 69.44%, which will all but guarantee them a spot in the final, with at least one of Australia or India guaranteed to drop points since they're facing off against each other. 

Currently five teams are in contention to reach the final, their maximum PCT are as follows:

India – 79.82%

Matches Remaining: 7 [2 vs NZ (H), 5 vs AUS (A)]

Australia – 76.32%

Matches Remaining: 7 [5 vs IND (H), 2 vs SL (A)]

South Africa – 69.44%

Matches Remaining: 5 [1 vs BAN(A), 2 vs PAK(H), 2 vs SL(H)]

Sri Lanka – 69.23%

Matches Remaining: 4 [2 vs SA(A), 2 vs AUS(H)]

New Zealand – 64.29%

Matches Remaining: 5 [2 vs IND(A), 3 vs ENG(H)]

As mentioned before, if South Africa win each of their remaining five Tests, their PCT will shoot up to 69.44%. That will mean India cannot afford to slip up even slightly. Even if India win five and lose two of their remaining seven Tests, they will not be able to match South Africa's projected maximum PCT of 69.44%. 

It's in fact even worse with Australia. They'll have to win six of their remaining seven Tests in order to keep their PCT over 69.44%. Even if Australia go 5-1-1 in their remaining seven Tests, their PCT will only be 67.54%.

In many ways, then, South Africa are in pole position because a) they have their fate in their own hands and b) they have the easiest fixtures remaining because four of their remaining five games are at home, that too against opponents they'll fancy beating. 

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