TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsAfter four days of hard toil, it all comes down to the last day of the Test. Many critics had ruled out a five-day Test at the end of Day Two. But, here is India, fighting their way through. They are still far from victory, but funny things can happen.
With 280 runs required for India and seven wickets for Australia to win, the match hangs in the balance, as all three results are possible. A draw and Australia's win is a higher possibility. India's win will certainly be a miracle. Chasing 444 against a full-fledged Aussie bowling line-up only happens occasionally.
The encouraging fact is that the top two chases in Test history have come against Australia. West Indies in 2003, gunned down 418 in Antigua, and South Africa in 2008, hunted down 414 in Perth. Additionally, India chased 329 against the same bowling line-up in 2021 at the Gabba.
In the last six matches in England (excluding this), batting teams have chased 270+ on four occasions. India were at the receiving end in the biggest chase in the rescheduled Test against England (378/3).
Is the chase possible?
The biggest worry for India is that after Virat Kohli and Ajinkya Rahane, only Ravindra Jadeja is a capable bat. KS Bharat has batted only one innings in England. Shardul Thakur's record at The Oval is exceptional, but one of Kohli, Rahane, or Jadeja has to bat long. This makes the first session of the fifth day the most crucial session of the Test for India.
In any case, the chase is not entirely impossible. In Tests in England since 2000, the most runs scored on the fifth day to win a Test is 317 by West Indies in 2017. Chasing 322, The Men in Maroon chased it with a comfortable margin of five wickets after being 5/0 at the end of Day Four.
In 2001, England scored 311 on the last day of the Test to win against Australia (4/0 at the end of Day Four). In Tests since 2000, four times 270+ has been scored on the last day of the Test to win. India scored 325 runs on the last day in the famous Gabba Test win, chasing 329. Just like Justin Langer said, "Never underestimate India."
Kohli's impeccable record on Day Five
If India needs a win, then Kohli is the one who has to turn up for them. In Tests, he averages 51.2 in the fourth innings outside Asia (15 innings with 666 runs). Among Indian batters who have batted 10+ times, only Sunil Gavaskar has a higher average (75.7 in 17 innings with 984 runs).
That is just an appetizer, and the main course is his batting in the fourth innings on the fifth day of a Test (overall). Kohli has batted nine times on the fifth day of the fourth innings. In those nine innings, he has scored 578 runs at an astonishing average of 96.3. Yes! You heard it right. Kohli has scored 100+ runs twice, between 50-99 thrice and 30-49 three times. His lowest score is an unbeaten 14.
Four of those innings have been outside Asia at an even better average of 115.3. He has 346 runs, and both of his 100+ runs were outside Asia. One against Australia (2014) in Adelaide (141) and the other against New Zealand (2014) in Wellington (105*).
In Tests since 2000, among batters who have scored 300+ runs on Day Five of the fourth innings, only Kane Williamson (150 with 450 runs) and Ricky Ponting (97.7 with 684 runs) have a better average than Kohli's 96.3.
Please note: The runs counted are only those scored on the fifth day. Carry forward from Day Four is not accounted for.
Overall, Kohli has an average of 68.8 in 14 innings (where he has batted on the fifth day in the third or fourth innings).
It is as clear as a crystal that Kohli will be the mainstay of India in this mammoth pursuit.
What is the weather like?
The rain gods were kept away for all four days of this Test match. Apart from the first hour of Day One, it was bright and sunny throughout. Come the most critical day, and there is a chance of a shower in the noon session. The day will start with a dry and sunny spell. But there is a chance of 24-40% precipitation between 2-5 PM. The reserve day may come into play.
