QUALIFICATION SCENARIO
Follow UsThe third cycle of the World Test Championship (WTC) is at its halfway mark. The usual favourites—India, Australia, and New Zealand—have done well in the cycle and have a high chance of qualification. Even Sri Lanka, who has a large portion of its WTC 2023-25 cycle games remaining, will be in the race to the mace if they win and increase its PCT (Points percentage).
South Africa and Pakistan have had terrible starts to the WTC cycle. England, the team playing the most games in this cycle, are in a huge spot of bother as their WTC Final dreams are on a double-edged sword.
With the final being hosted in England in June 2025, let us look at the remaining fixtures for all the nine teams and figure out their qualification scenarios.
WORLD TEST CHAMPIONS 2023-25 POINTS TABLE
India – 9 matches, 6 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw, 74 points, 68.52 PCT
Results so far: 1-0 vs WI (A), 1-1 vs SA (A), 4-1 vs ENG (H)
Matches Remaining: 3 vs NZ (H), 2 vs BAN (H), 5 vs AUS (A)
Maximum PCT: 85.08
Qualification scenario:
- Team India have the best chance of finishing at the top of the table and qualifying for the 2025 WTC Final. Winning 6-7 matches out of their remaining 10 Tests will seal India's spot in the WTC 2025 Final
- If team India win their five home Tests (2 vs BAN, 3 vs NZ), they will have zero pressure heading into the 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy, where they can afford to slip up in a couple of games and still make it to the final.
- If India lose a couple of Tests at home before BGT 2024-25, they will be under extra pressure to stay on top in the WTC 2023-25 points table, meaning that the BGT might become a must-win affair.
- If they beat Australia in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, they will put the Aussies under pressure as their remaining two Tests against Sri Lanka will become a must-win.
Australia – 12 matches, 8 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw, 90 points, 62.5 PCT
Results so far: 2-2 vs ENG (A), 3-0 vs PAK (H), 1-1 vs WI (H), 2-0 vs NZ (A)
Matches Remaining: 5 vs IND (H), 2 vs SL (A)
Maximum PCT: 78.95
Qualification Scenario
- Win at least four of the seven remaining Tests in the WTC Cycle in order to have a PCT of 63.16 or above
- If Australia gets clean swept 0-5, 0-4 or 1-4 by India in the Border–Gavaskar Series at home, they will be out of the race from a WTC Final qualification as they can reach a maximum PTC of 57.9 only if they win one Test against India and beat Sri Lanka in both the Tests.
- If Australia lose the Test series against India by a margin of 0-3, 1-2 or 1-3, they must win both the Tests against Sri Lanka, which is scheduled in early February, in order to stay in the hunt for the WTC Final
New Zealand – 6 matches, 3 wins, 3 losses, 36 points, 50 PCT
Results so far: 1-1 vs BAN (A), 2-0 vs SA (H), 0-2 vs AUS (H)
Matches Remaining: 2 vs SL (A), 3 vs IND (A), 3 vs ENG (H)
Maximum PCT: 78.57
Qualification Scenario:
- New Zealand must win at least five of the eight remaining Tests in WTC cycle 2023-25 in order to reach 57.14 and have a chance of qualifying for the WTC 2025 Final
- New Zealand must win at least three of the five away Tests they will play against Sri Lanka and India in order to avoid a must-win scenario during the three-match home Test series against England
- If they fail to win even one Test against Sri Lanka and India, they will be out of WTC Final Qualification as they can reach only 42.85 PCT
Sri Lanka – 4 matches, 2 wins, 2 losses, 24 points, 50 PCT
Results so far: 0-2 vs PAK (H), 2-0 vs BAN (A)
Matches Remaining: 3 vs ENG (A), 2 vs AUS (H), 2 vs NZ (H), 2 vs SA (A)
Maximum PCT: 84.62
Qualification Scenario:
- Sri Lanka can reach up to 84.62 PCT, which is the second maximum PCT after India
- They must win at least six of the nine Tests in WTC 2023-25 as it will take their PCT to 61.54, which will give them a big chance of qualifying for the WTC 2025 Final
- They should win three of the five away Tests, which will relieve some of the pressure during the home series against Australia and New Zealand.
- As they will be facing England away in August, they will fall into a do-or-die situation in the remaining six Tests if they fail to win even one Test in England
- If they win their upcoming series against England, they will kick England out of WTC 2025 final contention
Pakistan – 5 matches, 2 wins, 3 losses, 22 points, 36.66 PCT
Results so far: 2-0 vs SL (A), 0-3 vs AUS (A)
Matches remaining: 2 vs BAN (H), 3 vs ENG (H), 2 vs SA (A), 2 vs WI (H)
Maximum PCT: 77.3
Qualification Scenario:
- Pakistan must win at least six of the nine remaining Tests in WTC 2023-25 in order to be in contention for the final
- They have seven of the nine remaining Tests at home. They should win at least five of them as it will keep themselves in the race for qualification to the WTC Final
- The two Tests against South Africa will be crucial as winning both will boost their PCT above 55%
- If they win their series against England at home, they will push out England from the WTC 2025 final contention
West Indies – 5 matches, 1 win, 3 losses, 1 draw, 16 points, 26.67 PCT
Results so far: 0-1 vs IND (H), 1-1 vs AUS (A), 0-1 vs ENG (A)* (ongoing)
Matches remaining: 2 vs ENG (A)* ongoing, 2 vs SA (H), 2 vs BAN (H), 2 vs PAK (A)
Maximum PCT: 71.8
Qualification Scenario:
- West Indies are already in a tough position as they have won only one of their five Tests in the WTC cycle 2023-25. Even if they win six of their remaining eight Tests, they will have a minimum PCT of 53.85, which will give them a slim chance of qualifying for the WTC 2025 final subject to other teams failing
- As they are currently 0-1 down against England away from home, they cannot afford to lose another Test as it will knock them out of contention with three more series still remaining
- If they win their series against Bangladesh and South Africa at home, they will knock both of them out of the WTC 2025 final contention
South Africa – 4 matches, 1 win, 3 losses, 12 points, 25 PCT
Results so far: 1-1 vs IND (H), 0-2 vs NZ (A)
Matches Remaining: 2 vs WI (A), 2 vs BAN (A), 2 vs SL (H), 2 vs PAK (H)
Maximum PCT: 75
Qualification Scenario:
- South Africa have eight Tests remaining in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. They, along with Bangladesh, are playing the least number of matches in the WTC 2023-25 cycle (12 Tests). With them losing three of their four Tests, they will only be in contention for the WTC 2025 qualification if they can win at least seven of their eight Tests, as it will take their PCT to 61.54
- If they beat West Indies and Bangladesh even in one of the two Tests, they will eliminate both of them from WTC Final Qualification
Bangladesh – 4 matches, 1 win, 3 losses, 12 points, 25 PCT
Results so far: 1-1 vs NZ (H), 0-2 vs SL (H)
Matches remaining: 2 vs PAK (A), 2 vs IND (A), 2 vs WI (A), 2 vs SA (H)
Maximum PCT: 75
Qualification Scenario:
- Bangladesh, too, like South Africa, have won just one of their four games in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. They are playing the least Tests in this WTC 2023-25 cycle with a total of just 12 Tests. They need to win seven of their remaining eight Tests in order to stay in contention at 61.54 PCT
- Six of their eight remaining games are away from home. This will deteriorate their chances of being in contention, as losing even one game will knock them out of the WTC 2025 Final aspiration
- If they win against both India and Pakistan in their respective series, they will dampen the chances of those two as they will fall into a must-win scenario heading into their respective future series
England – 11 matches, 4 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw, 33 points, 25 PCT
Results so far: 2-2 vs AUS (H), 1-4 vs IND (A), 1-0 vs WI (H)
Matches remaining: 2 vs WI (H), 3 vs SL (H), 3 vs PAK (A), 3 vs NZ (A)
Maximum PCT: 68.18
Qualification Scenario:
- England have not been convincing in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. They had 22 Tests - the most for a team in this WTC cycle. They have managed to win only four of them and lose in six of the seven other games, pushing them to a do-or-die situation
- They have 11 more Tests remaining, and winning all 11 of those will take their PCT to 68.18, giving them a realistic chance of qualification. In the process, they will knock out West Indies, Pakistan and New Zealand from contention
- If they lose two or more Tests in the remaining 11, they will be knocked out
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