WI chances look bleak as SL & ZIM march into Super Six with an advantage

A new points system was introduced for the 2023 ODI World Cup Qualifiers. The three teams heading into the Super Six from each group would carry forward the points. However, only the points gained by winning against the qualified team would be taken forward. 

With wins in all four matches, Zimbabwe (Group A), the home team, and Sri Lanka (Group B) topped their respective groups. West Indies and the Netherlands also make it through from Group A. From Group B, Scotland and Oman sneak through. Ireland's exit came as a shocking surprise. 

Sri Lanka & Zimbabwe look firm favorites

By winning all four games, Sri Lanka and the hosts have carried forward four points into the Super Six stage. All they need now is two wins out of their three games. 

In hindsight, Sri Lanka have more formidable opponents compared to Zimbabwe. Their first game is against the Netherlands, a team high on confidence after their heist against West Indies. They will play their second game against the hosts. It is not just the 11 men they will be against but also a jam-packed crowd. The last fixture is against unpredictable West Indies. 

If Sri Lanka win their first two games and Scotland lose one, they will confirm a berth to India, as no other team can exceed their points, and only Zimbabwe can attain eight points. 

On the other hand, Zimbabwe will be playing Oman in their first game, Sri Lanka in the second, and Scotland in their last fixture. Even if they lose against Sri Lanka and assume the island nation beats the Netherlands, winning against Oman and Scotland will ensure their tickets to India. 

Scotland & Netherlands - Far but not too far

The Dutch made a superb comeback after their loss against Zimbabwe in their first game. Their breathtaking win against West Indies, via a super-over, ensured they entered the Super Six stage with two points. Though they had three wins, only the points gained against West Indies are considered as the USA and Nepal were knocked out. 

In their Super Six fixture, Sri Lanka is the only team that can cause them a threat. They can eye for a win against the remaining two, that is, Scotland and Oman. In any case, they need to eye a big win against one of Scotland or Oman to boost their negative Net Run Rate of -0.739.

Scotland are also on similar terms with the Dutch. They have two points and must win all their games to reach eight. However, compared to the Netherlands, they have much tougher opponents. They will be up against West Indies in their first game, Zimbabwe in the second, and the Dutch in the last. 

For them to reach the showpiece event, Scotland need to win all their games and get to eight points. Their NRR is also decent (-0.060). 

West Indies in a dire situation

Things have gone south for West Indies. They were one of the favorites to qualify for India after starting with big wins against the USA and Nepal. But they failed to chase 268 against Zimbabwe, and even worse, they could not defend 374 against the Netherlands. With losses against the teams that qualified for the Super Six, the Men in Maroon head to the next phase with zero points. 

The maximum number of points they can attain now is six, which won't guarantee them a spot. The qualified teams from their group, Zimbabwe and the Netherlands, are better positioned. Apart from Sri Lanka, neither Scotland nor Oman pose a threat. This means the Netherlands and Zimbabwe can reach six points even if they lose their respective games against Sri Lanka. Adding salt to their wound, West Indies have a negative NRR of -0.350. The Netherlands have a poorer NRR (-0.739) but can't match Zimbabwe's NRR (0.982). 

All-in-all, before the start of the Super Six, West Indies look down the barrel. 

Can Oman cause a few upsets?

In their first game in the group stage, they caused an upset against Ireland. By virtue of that win, Oman managed to sneak through to the Super Six. However, with losses against the two qualified teams, Scotland and Sri Lanka, they enter the last stage with zero points. 

Oman beating three top contenders is a long shot, but it is not impossible. For that to happen, they need magical performances. However, they can be the spoilsport for other teams.