TRENDS ANALYSIS
Follow UsThis article focuses on the trend of runs scored in the first innings of men's ODIs. So far, there have been 4487 completed ODI matches from January 5, 1971, to September 17, 2023. We will only look at data from the first innings of matches that lasted between 48 and 50 overs. 74.3% of these matches (3334 out of 4487) fall within this specific range, and we'll use this filtered data for our further analysis.
The plot below indicates how the average number of runs scored in the first innings has increased over the years. Back in the 1990s, it was around 220, but now it's getting close to 290. The red trendline (locally weighted smoothing) clearly shows this upward trend in the runs scored.
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As the year 2000 arrived, cricket experienced a noticeable shift in its dynamics. Rule changes played a pivotal role in this transformation. Key among these changes was the introduction of fielding restrictions, which made it more challenging for bowlers to control the flow of runs. The batsmen capitalised on these new opportunities, resulting in an increase in average scores to around 250 to 280 runs.
Around 2008, another rule change reshaped the powerplay overs; the batting team was given a choice for the timing of one of the two power plays. This rule adjustment further tilted the balance in favour of batsmen, leading to higher scores across the board. Teams have aimed for 260 to 300 runs on average during this period, with the best-performing teams even breaching the 300-run mark more consistently.
Around 2015, significant changes were introduced to the game. The use of two new balls at the beginning of each innings, the removal of the batting powerplay, and exposure to T20 cricket have collectively fueled a more aggressive batting approach.
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Next, we'll focus on the data after the 2015 World Cup. Until now (17 September 2023), there have been 966 completed ODI matches. 77.3% of these matches (747 out of 966) were stretched till the last three overs (from the 48th to the 50th over).
During this period, the average runs scored in the first innings were 276.2. But the average winning runs in the first innings were higher, at 292. Furthermore, the 50th percentile (median) of first-innings winning runs is 287. This means more than half of the winning teams scored above 287 runs in their first innings.
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Let's divide these first-innings runs into different ranges. The range where about half of the matches were won is when teams scored between 247 and 264 runs. And almost 70% of the matches are won by teams that scored between 303 and 319 runs. This win percentage keeps going up as the scores go higher. So, we can confidently say that scoring around 300 runs has become the new normal for teams if they want a good chance of winning.
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As the 2023 Cricket World Cup approaches, just a few months away, let's take a closer look at the team's median runs and the percentage of matches in which they have crossed the 300-run mark.
Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, and Pakistan have consistently managed to bat for more than 48 overs in a good percentage (>= 80%) of their matches, giving them the chance to build substantial innings. Whereas England, India, and South Africa have proven their effectiveness in consistently reaching scores above 300 runs when they get the time to bat for extended periods in more than 50% of their matches.
However, crossing the 300-run milestone is where some teams truly shine. England stands out with an impressive 74.5% of their matches in which they've batted for over 48 overs, resulting in scores exceeding 300 runs. When it comes to median scores during these longer innings, we see that England takes the lead with a solid median score of 324 runs in their 64 matches. India and South Africa aren't far behind, with a median score of 306 and 303.5 runs across their 70 and 57 matches, respectively.
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To analyse how teams perform when batting at different venues when they have batted at least 48 overs, we will use the Criclytics pitch index. This index assesses the nature of the pitch, with a rating of 1 indicating it is difficult to bat on and a rating of 4 indicating it is the easiest to bat. We will measure the team’s performance by comparing their median runs in each rating. The median runs for pitch indexes 1, 2, 3, and 4 are as follows: 241.5, 278, 306.5, and 315.
Pitch Index 1 appears to pose challenges for most teams, with South Africa experiencing the highest median deviation of runs at -52.5, while Australia displays significant variability in their performance on this pitch, achieving positive median deviations of runs at 41.
Teams like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Netherlands all encountered difficulties on Pitch Index 2. The Netherlands, in particular, had the highest median deviation of runs at -85.5. On the other hand, England and South Africa seemed to adapt well to this pitch condition, achieving positive median deviations of runs at 32.5 and 26, respectively.
Teams like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka encountered challenges on Pitch Index 3, with both Afghanistan and Sri Lanka achieving the lowest score of -42.5. In contrast, England and Australia performed relatively better, with scores of 36 and 27.5, respectively, on this type of pitch.
England and India demonstrated notable positive median deviations of runs on Pitch Index 4, with England scoring 22 runs above their median and India scoring 25 runs above their median. Conversely, teams like Bangladesh, South Africa, and Australia encountered challenges on this high-scoring pitch, scoring 40.5, 30.5, and 22.5 runs below their respective medians.
India has positive median deviation values across all four pitch indexes, indicating their consistent performance on all types of pitches. England appears to have performed relatively well on Pitch Indexes 2, 3, and 4 compared to most other teams, but they have not yet faced the challenge of batting on difficult pitches.
This is just part one, and the second part of this will cover how the ten teams construct their innings!
