TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsIt is a repeat of the 2019 World Cup semi-final. India take on their nemesis, New Zealand, but this time in the comfort of home in the 2023 World Cup. India broke their ICC event win-less streak against New Zealand when they won in the league stages. However, they have another jinx that needs to be broken. Post the 2013 Champions Trophy, India haven't won an ICC event.
Let's look at some key battles and tactical insights for players from both teams that could affect the result of this game:
2nd innings nightmare could see teams opting to bat first
Whenever we think of Wankhede, we think of it as a chasing ground. That might still be true for T20s, but not in this World Cup.
In the four games played at this venue, three times, teams batting first have won the game. The other occasion required a herculean effort (Maxwell's 201* against Afghanistan) to chase the target. On average, teams batting first have posted 357 runs. At the same time, the chasing teams have scored 188.
The main reason behind the sub-par performances by chasing teams has been the pacers in the first powerplay. Under the lights, the quicks have been unplayable at Wankhede. They average 45.8 with a wicket every 49.3 balls and an economy of 5.6 in the first innings. But in the second innings, the pacers have bagged a wicket every 9.2 runs and 13.4 balls.
First powerplay scores while batting first & second at Wankhede in CWC 2023 read:
59/1 (SA) || 67/4 (ENG) - SA vs ENG
44/2 (SA) || 35/3 (BAN) - SA vs BAN
60/1 (IND) || 14/6 (SL) - IND vs SL
46/1 (AFG) || 52/4 (AUS) - AFG vs AUS
Both India and New Zealand have a formidable pace attack and would want to exploit the conditions under light. Hence, the toss will be very crucial.
Can Bumrah fox Mitchell with his lethal off-cutters?
The right-handed batter Daryl Mitchell has 418 runs, averaging 59.7 and striking at 110.6. He has been the second-best batter for the Blackcaps in this WC.
He has an average of 63.25 against pacers with a strike rate of 112.95. Against spin, he has averaged 55 at a strike rate of 107.1. The numbers suggest that he is impenetrable, but there's a chink in his armor that Jasprit Bumrah can exploit.
Mitchell has four dismissals against pacers, and all four have been to off-cutters. The batter averages 10.4 against the change-up delivery. The four dismissals are the most for a batter against off-cutters in this WC.
On the other hand, the Indian pace spearhead Bumrah has outsmarted the batters five times with his off-cutters, the joint-most with Haris Rauf. He has dismissed a batter every 6.8 runs and 9.4 balls with his craftiness.
Mohammed Shami, in the league stage, deceived Mitchell with an off-cutter. Indian pacers will look to exploit this particular weakness of Mitchell.
Indian pacers should try around the wicket angle against Rachin
Rachin Ravindra, this name will echo till at least December 19th, the day of the IPL auction. The left-hander has scored 565 runs at a staggering average of 70.6 and a strike rate of 108.5. The New Zealander has shown no signs of weakness against spin or pace. There is very little that Indian pacers can exploit.
In this World Cup, Rachin has an average of 29.5 against left-arm pacers, but India does not have that luxury. The alternative to that is Indian quicks coming from around the wicket.
Both his dismissals against left-arm pacers have come in his first 20 balls. Though both have been on different lengths, the angle into him has troubled the batter. Marco Jansen bounced him out, and Mustafizur Rahman cramped him for room.
In the first 20-ball phase, Rachin scores at a strike rate of 91.7 against right-arm pacers when they have bowled over the wicket compared to 75 when bowled around. He has also played with 88.9% control from over the wicket compared to 70.8% from around.
Shami is the perfect bowler who can exploit this. All of Shami's left-hander wickets have come from around the wicket. The pacer averages 5.4 for his five wickets from this angle to the lefties in this WC.
Moreover, in the league match, Indian pacers had tied down Rachin. The left-hander scored at a strike rate of 69.0 against the quicks compared to 102.2 against the spinners. Against South Africa as well, Rachin couldn't get on top of the pacers. It does not require a mention anymore that India and South Africa are the best pace units in this World Cup.
Kohli vs Santner
A left-arm orthodox (LAO) spinner against Virat Kohli is always a battle to watch out for. In ODIs from 2022 till the start of this WC, Kohli averaged 13 against the bowling type with eight dismissals in 11 innings. However, it's been down to just one dismissal in five innings and 116 balls in this World Cup. But the strike is on the lower side (72.4). In fact, the lowest for him against a bowling type in this WC (Minimum 30 balls).
Mitchell Santner has been the Kiwis' best bowler with 16 wickets.
Can the Indian spinners put a stranglehold on Williamson?
In the league stage, the New Zealand skipper, Kane Williamson, did not feature in the XI owing to an injury. But he will be in the mix in the semi-final.
In any case, Williamson against India in Asia hasn't been a great competition. The batter averages 28.6 against India in the sub-continent.
Overall, Ravindra Jadeja & Kuldeep Yadav have dismissed him twice in ODIs. Williamson has a decent average against Jadeja (58.5) but a low strike rate (75). But against Kuldeep, both are mediocre. He averages nine and strikes at 72 in three innings. To be precise, his overall ODI record against left-arm wrist spinners is itself poor. In six innings, he has four dismissals and an average of 17.75.
It is not only the spinners. Even against the other two Indian pacers, he has a low strike rate. Shami has dismissed him twice, and Williamson has scored at 78. Against Bumrah, the strike rate (47) is lower than 50 - one dismissal.
Lockie to bounce out Gill again?
After Rohit Sharma, if there is someone in this Indian setup who plays the short ball well, it is Shubman Gill. However, there have been instances where Gill has been dismissed to that particular length in this WC.
In this World Cup, Gill has got out twice to short ball/bouncer (10m+) in four balls. One of them came against Lockie Ferguson in the league stage.
Interestingly, he lost his wicket while playing the uppercut on both occasions.
One of the two teams against whom IND spinners struggled
While the Indian pacers have hogged the limelight, the spinners have also done their bit. Their average of 20.5, being the best, is a testimony of it.
However, Indian spinners underperformed in two games. One was against Afghanistan when they picked up only one wicket in 18 overs, but their economy was on the lower side (4.3).
Against New Zealand, the Indian tweakers' struggled a little more. They not only failed to pick up wickets, they were among the runs as well. Jadeja went wicket-less, and Kuldeep bagged two wickets while leaking runs above seven an over. Both averaged 60.5 with an economy of 6.05 together, the only match where Indian spinners conceded above five an over.
Adding to their woes, Wankhede has been the worst venue for the spinners in this WC. Only 11 wickets have been scalped by the tweakers at an average and a bowling strike rate of 70.1, the worst among all ten venues.
Kuldeep will look to bowl it a bit wide against the right-handers
In the league game against the Blackcaps, Kuldeep took a beating, and most of it was due to the counter-attack by Mitchell.
In his first five overs against New Zealand, the wrist spinner went for 45 runs. As Kuldeep was slower through the air, Mitchell could charge down the ground with conviction. Kuldeep bowled at an average speed of 88.3 in his first five overs. Also, the spinner’s line was more on the stumps in his first five.
However, without spin in Dharamsala, he had to adjust his line and speed. This helped him a lot in his last five overs. After giving away 45 runs in his first five, Kuldeep’s last five went for only 25 runs. In this phase, his lines were wider to the right-handers, and the pace was up around 90.4.
