QUALIFICATION SCENARIO
Follow UsFor most of the first part, the 2023 World Cup looked pale. There were too many easy winners and no real fight in the points table. However, things have spiced up a bit, especially after South Africa's massive win of 190 runs against New Zealand.
With that, the pulse in the Pakistan camp has picked up. If the Blackcaps had won the match, they would have had ten points, and with their good Net Run Rate before Match 32, they would have been in a comfortable position, and the remaining league stage would have been a series of dead rubbers.
But New Zealand’s loss is the tournament’s gain. Interestingly, the Kiwis' loss has opened a gate even for Afghanistan. However, the realistic fight is still between Pakistan and New Zealand. Australia also have eight points, but considering their NRR of 0.970 and their fixtures (against England, Afghanistan & Bangladesh), it should be a stroll in the park for them. However, one can never know which team will spring a surprise.
For now, let us look at what the teams need to qualify for the Semi-finals:
Let us start with the two table toppers, South Africa (2.290) and India (1.405). With 12 points, both teams are sitting pretty with a healthy NRR. South Africa are way more than healthy in terms of NRR. India are playing Sri Lanka on November 2nd, and a win against them will ensure a spot in the knock-outs.
The Proteas are playing India next, on November 5th. If they win, then it is a certain top-two spot.
What are the odds for New Zealand & has the door opened for Pakistan?
At one stage, New Zealand were flying. But they have suffered three back-to-back losses—after losing to India, they have lost a close one against Australia and a massive one against South Africa. But still, in terms of NRR, they (0.484) are ahead of Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan won big against Bangladesh and brought their NRR down to -0.024. The men in green are below New Zealand on the points table, with two fewer points.
The good thing is that they play against each other in their subsequent encounter. A Blackcaps win will see a potential Pakistan exit. In this scenario, just a victory for New Zealand should be enough with their NRR.
However, they cannot just relax with a win against Pakistan. If Afghanistan miraculously win their three games, they will attain 12 points. New Zealand's maximum achievable points are also 12. In any case, Afghanistan's NRR is -0.718, which is a long way behind. This is why New Zealand needs to win both their remaining games against Pakistan and Sri Lanka to avoid any last-minute hiccup.
On the flip side, if Pakistan win against New Zealand, then it will be a five-team race for two spots. But Pakistan needs a good win to overtake New Zealand's NRR. If we remember the 2019 WC, the fight was for the fourth spot, and it was between New Zealand and Pakistan. Both were tied on 11 points, and the Kiwis (0.175) pipped Pakistan (-0.430) due to a superior NRR.
For Pakistan to pip NZ on NRR, they will have to win the encounter by 82 or more runs if they score 200, 83 if they score 250, 85 or more while defending 300, and 86 with 350 on the board. If they are chasing, they must achieve the target in 35.2 or fewer overs. This is all Pakistan can do on their own. The rest remains out of their hands.
Pakistan will subsequently want New Zealand to lose to Sri Lanka. If the Kiwis win big against the island nation, it will mean a certain exit for Pakistan.
Even with a win against the Blackcaps, Pakistan will depend on others. They would want Afghanistan - who are to play Netherlands, Australia, and South Africa - to lose two of those games.
Though Australia are sitting pretty at third position, things could change quickly if they lose two. Considering they are playing weaker opponents, they are favorites to qualify.
Did you know? A team can qualify with eight points as well
Suppose New Zealand lose to Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In that case, if Pakistan lose to England after their win against the Blackcaps, Afghanistan win against the Netherlands and lose their remaining two. Further, if Sri Lanka win one game against Bangladesh or India, after a win against New Zealand, four teams will have eight points. New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan & Afghanistan can be tied with eight points, and the team with better NRR will go through.
To sum it up, the teams fighting for the two spots should just keep winning the games to ensure they stay alive. In Pakistan’s case they should look to win by as big a margin as possible.
