LSG eye a win to keep fate in their own hands

It is the penultimate day in the league stage of IPL 2023, and Kolkata Knight Riders will lock horns against Lucknow Super Giants. Kolkata's chance of making it to the playoff is a long shot. They are almost out of the race with 12 points and a negative Net Run Rate of -0.256. 

This match is all about Lucknow. They are currently at 15 points and have a healthy NRR of 0.308. However, Chennai Super Kings are also tied with 15 points and a slightly better NRR (0.381), which makes this match a must-win for Lucknow. If they win the game against Kolkata, they go through, irrespective of their NRR. 

Both teams will be high on confidence after their wins. Kolkata outsmarted Chennai at Chepauk, and Lucknow defended against Mumbai in their previous game at home. All-in-all, Kolkata can spoil the party for Lucknow. 

Things to watch out for

Is home really an advantage for Kolkata spinners

Kolkata's bowling has depended heavily on spinners for a few seasons, and IPL 2023 is no different. Their pacers have picked up 25 wickets while leaking runs at an economy of 10.7. They have bagged a wicket every 42.4 runs and 23.8 balls, arguably the worst among all teams. 

With little help from the pacers, the home advantage had to shift towards the spinners. However, has it been an advantage? That is the big question.

In this IPL, Kolkata's spinners have picked up 18 wickets at an economy of 8.9 at home. They have snaffled a wicket every 22.8 balls and 33.8 runs. In comparison, in away games, they have an economy of 7.8, a balls/wicket ratio of 18, and an average of 23.5. 

In fact, visiting team's spinners have had better outcomes than Kolkata in this IPL. In six innings, their opponent spinners have bagged a wicket every 15.3 balls and 22.8 runs. 

Can Bishnoi prove his might outside Lucknow?

Ravi Bishnoi has been Lucknow's highest wicket-taker in this IPL. However, 64.3% of his wickets (9) have come in Lucknow (Ekana Stadium). He has a bowling average of 17.9 and a strike rate of 15 at home compared to 35.4 and 24 in away games. 

His economy shoots up to 8.9 in away games compared to 7.2 at home. He has been so expensive in the last two away games that he has not completed his full quota of overs. In the last three away games, he has conceded at an economy of 10.3 (vs PBKS (4)), 10.5 (vs GT (2)), and 11.5 (vs SRH (2)). 

Jason Roy is going hard against spinners

Roy's inclusion has done wonders for Kolkata. The opening batter has scored 240 runs at a strike rate of 150 and an average of 34.3. The most promising aspect of his batting has been his counter-attacking skills against the spinners. 

Generally, his strike rate against pace has always been on the higher side. However, this year, it has been the opposite. Against the pacers, he has a strike rate of 119 compared to a whopping 231 against spinners. 

From 2017 to 2021, in 10 innings, Roy had an average of 24.6 and a strike rate of 123 against spinners. He had hit a boundary every five balls and a six every 25 balls. He has hit a boundary every 2.6 balls and a six every 4.4 balls this year. Among batters who have scored 100+ runs against spinners in IPL 2023, his strike rate, ball/boundary, and balls/six are the best. 

Ground details

Runs and boundaries flow like water at the Eden Gardens—a run rate of 9.6 is a testimony of it. In this IPL, only at Wankhede (10.1) and in Bengaluru (9.7), the run rate is higher among venues where two or more matches have been played. 

On average, teams have scored 196 runs in the first innings. Teams batting first and second, have had an equal share of wins in six matches. However, teams winning the toss haven't had any advantage. In six games, only 33.3% of the time, teams have won the match after winning the toss. 

In the bowling department, pacers and spinners have each bowled 50% of the overs. But the spinners have the wood over the pacers in all other aspects. The spinners have bagged 52.2% of the wickets at an economy of 8.6 and a balls/wicket ratio of 19.1. In comparison, pacers have conceded at 10.3 runs/over and have bagged a wicket every 20.8 deliveries. 

Tactical Nous

-In this IPL, Quinton de Kock has been in a decent run. In three innings, he has 115 runs at a healthy strike rate of 153.3. However, there is a weakness that Kolkata's spinners will look to exploit. 

All three dismissals this season have come against leg spinners. Adding to Quinton's misery, Kolkata have two lethal leggies. He averages just 12 against them and has a balls/dismissal ratio of seven. 

-Nitish Rana has been one of Kolkata's best batters in this edition. Of the 405 runs he has scored, 247 have come against pacers at an average of 61.75. But, against spinners, he averages 19.75 (eight dismissals).

Though his average is low against spinners, he has been exceptional whenever they have pitched full or short. This means the spinners have to be precise with their lengths. He has seven dismissals and strikes at 109 when bowled on a good length. 

Team news

Kolkata wouldn't look to hamper their winning combination. If they tend to make a change, Johnson Charles could replace Rahmanullah Gurbaz.  

Probable XI: Jason Roy, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Venkatesh Iyer (IP), Nitish Rana (c), Rinku Singh, Andre Russell, Shardul Thakur, Sunil Narine, Vaibhav Arora, Harshit Rana, Varun Chakravarthy

Probable Impact sub: Suyash Sharma for Venkatesh Iyer

Lucknow have a dilemma. They tried opening with Deepak Hooda, and that was yet another failed attempt. They cannot bring in Kyle Mayers, as Naveen-ul-Haq has consistently performed for them. Despite Hooda's failure, they could resist the same team to compensate for their bowling. Considering the number of Kolkata's left-handers, K Gowtham can replace Swapnil Singh. 

Probable XI: Deepak Hooda, Quinton de Kock (wk), Prerak Mankad (IP), Krunal Pandya (c), Marcus Stoinis, Nicholas Pooran, Ayush Badoni, Naveen-ul-Haq, Ravi Bishnoi, Swapnil Singh/Krishnappa Gowtham, Mohsin Khan

Probable Impact sub: Yash Thakur for Prerak Mankad