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Follow UsThe ongoing cycle of the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 is heading towards its business end, with each team, give or take, having a couple of bilateral series remaining.
At this point in time, though, of the nine teams taking part in this tournament, only five have a realistic chance of reaching the final. India are sitting at the top of the WTC points table and are overwhelming favourites to make the final, with their PCT (Percentage of points won) being far ahead of the others. Australia are second on the points table but Sri Lanka, South Africa and New Zealand are also very much in contention.
Let us find out where the teams currently stand and what must happen for each side to qualify to the WTC final, which is scheduled to be played at the iconic Lord's Cricket Ground from June 7-11 next year.
India
Remaining games: 3 matches vs New Zealand (H), 5 matches vs Australia (A)
> As things stand, even if India whitewash New Zealand at home, they still will have to win at least two Tests against Australia in BGT in order to keep their PCT above 70% and assure themselves a spot in the final. But realistically, a whitewash over New Zealand and a drawn BGT will be enough for India to secure a spot in the final.
> If India beat New Zealand 3-0 and lose 3-1 to Australia in the BGT, their PCT will still be a healthy 65.78%. That should still be enough for them to make the final.
> In the scenario that India clean sweep New Zealand and Australia clean sweep India in the BGT, their PCT will drop to 58.77%. Such a scenario will open the door for other sides, especially Sri Lanka, to make it to the final and will put India's chances in real jeopardy. But even if India manage to win one match in the BGT (1-4 defeat), their PCT will be 64%.
Australia
Series remaining: 5 matches vs India (H), 2 matches vs Sri Lanka (A)
> If Australia win six of their remaining seven Tests, five of which are at home, they will qualify for the WTC Final with 71.05% PCT as Sri Lanka, South Africa and England won’t be able to reach this PCT even if they win all their remaining games.
> Australia simply cannot afford not to win the BGT. A 2-2 draw in the BGT followed by a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka will only take their PCT to 62.28%, taking their fate out of their own hands. A 2-2 draw in the BGT and a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka will mean their PCT will drop to 57%, opening the door for not only Sri Lanka but also South Africa and New Zealand to surpass them.
> Realistically, a 3-1 win in the BGT and a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka will be enough for Australia to secure a spot in the final, as it will take their PCT to 67.54%. They might still go through with a 3-1 BGT win and a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka, provided a few other results go their way.
Sri Lanka
Series remaining: 2 matches vs South Africa (A), 2 matches vs Australia (H)
> If Sri Lanka lose even one Test match against South Africa, their chances of getting past Australia’s PCT will reduce as the maximum PCT they'll be able to reach will be 61.53%. Then, they would want India to do them a big favour.
> If Sri Lanka lose 0-2 to South Africa, they can kiss their WTC Final chances goodbye. Even whitewashing Australia will then take their PCT to a maximum of 53.84%, which will by no means be enough.
South Africa
Series remaining: 2 matches vs Bangladesh (A), 2 matches vs Sri Lanka (H), 2 matches vs Pakistan (H)
> If South Africa win all their remaining six matches, they will finish with a PCT of 69.44% and will eliminate Sri Lanka from the competition in the process. If they do this, they will likely also pip one of India or Australia and make it to the final.
> However, even if South Africa lose one of their remaining six matches, the maximum PCT they can get to will be 61.1%, which will practically take them out of contention. They will then be heavily reliant on other results to make the final.
> Winning 4/6 remaining matches will mean South Africa will end up with a PCT of 52.77%. That will mean they can kiss goodbye to their chances.
New Zealand
Series remaining: 3 matches vs India (A), 3 matches vs England (H)
> New Zealand can reach a maximum PCT of 64.29 if they win their remaining six Tests.
> If they lose even one of the remaining six, their PCT will drop to 57.14%.
> Even A 1-1 draw in India and a 3-0 win over England will, in all likelihood, knock the Blackcaps out. In this scenario, they will only have a PCT of 52.38%.
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The remaining teams in the competition - England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies - are practically out of contention as they cannot end up with a PCT of 60% even if they win all their remaining matches.
Pakistan – 59.52%
England – 57.95%
Bangladesh – 56.25%
West Indies – 51.28%
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