TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsFrom the Western coast of India, the action for the 2nd semi-final of the 2023 World Cup shifts to the Eastern shores.
South Africa have had a series of heartbreaks in WC knockouts — one such came against Australia in the 1999 edition. However, the power dynamic between the two sides has shifted in the past few years, so can the Proteas overcome the ghosts of the past?
Ahead of the all-important semi-final on Thursday, let us look at some key battles and tactical insights that could affect the result of the contest.
Eden Gardens, a dream venue for spinners and reverse-swing experts
Of the ten venues in this World Cup, only in three the spinners have averaged less than 35, and Eden Gardens is one of them. Only in Delhi do the tweakers have a better average and strike rate than Kolkata, but the economy is significantly higher in the capital city.
Australia's leading wicket-taker in this WC is a spinner (Adam Zampa), and while Keshav Maharaj might not lead the pack with wickets for South Africa, he is their most economical bowler.
It is just not the spinners. Pacers with the ability to reverse the ball will also enjoy bowling at the fag end of the innings. According to our ball data, nine wickets have fallen to reverse swing at Eden Gardens, the most at a venue in this WC. Those nine wickets have come at an average of 7.3 and a balls/wicket ratio of 7.7, once again the best.
Wide lines & off-spin of Maxwell/Head could work well against de Kock
Quinton de Kock's record against pacers wide outside off has been hot and cold throughout his ODI career. The same has been the case in this World Cup for the second-highest run-scorer.
Four out of his six dismissals against the quicks have come wide outside off. However, he has scored at a strike rate of 113.9 against those deliveries. In simple terms, wide deliveries are a double-edged sword for de Kock, for they are both his strength and weakness. Australian seamers should look to exploit this at the start.
If that doesn't work, the alternative is to hand over the ball to Glenn Maxwell or Travis Head. De Kock has a strike rate of above 100 against every bowling type, barring off-spin. He has three dismissals against the offies, averaging 38.7 while scoring at 78.4, his worst record against a bowling type this WC.
Around the wicket angle for right-arm pacers against Warner?
The sight of a right-arm pacer coming from around the wicket is probably an unhealable scar that Stuart Broad has left in David Warner's career. Even in this WC, he has had trouble with that particular angle from the right-arm quicks.
Overall, Warner has five dismissals against right-arm pacers while averaging 41.8. When bowled from over the wicket, Warner has two dismissals and averages 56.5 and strikes at 134.5. However, around the wicket, this average drops to 32 with three outs and a strike rate of 98 It is even more troublesome at the start of his innings (in the first ten overs). He averages 68 with one dismissal when bowled over the wicket compared to 27 with two when bowled around.
Adding to that, the left-arm angle of Marco Jansen can also trouble him.
Shamsi needs to rectify his lines against the right-handers
Kolkata has been one of those venues conducive to spin, so Tabraiz Shamsi might get the nod ahead of Gerald Coetzee. Provided the opportunity, the left-wrist spinner needs to get his line right, especially to the right-handers.
Shamsi has bowled 40.6% of his deliveries against right-handers on the stumps, which is acceptable. But he has bowled 30.5% down the leg side. Whenever he has attacked the stumps, he has conceded at 4.4 but has leaked runs at 7.1/over when he has misfired.
With Australia boasting right-handers from No.3 to No.7, Shamsi will play a key role in supporting Keshav Maharaj.
Play out Jansen's powerplay overs
Jansen has been South Africa's best bowler with 17 wickets in this WC. However, 12 of his 17 have come in the first ten overs. The left-arm pacer averages 16.7 in this phase while conceding at 5.6 and picking up a wicket every 18 balls. His 12 wickets in the first powerplay are the most for a bowler.
In any case, the problem is after the powerplay. In the next 40-over stage, Jansen has bagged only five wickets at an average of 43 and has leaked runs at 7.5/over. Among bowlers who have bowled 25+ overs between 11-50, only Dilshan Madushanka (8.1) has a higher economy than Jansen.
To summarize, play him out in the first ten overs and then attack.
Pacers will be punished if they bowl full to Maxwell
We know Maxwell is someone that will punish bowlers on his day, notwithstanding where they land the ball. But for now, let's keep the chat exclusive to this World Cup.
Maxwell has a whopping strike rate of 249 when the seamers have bowled it in the slot (2-6m). Among batters who have faced 15+ balls against pacers on this length, no one has a better strike rate than Maxwell.
How do you keep him quiet? Bowl back of a length/short deliveries around the off-stump region. This is one area where Maxwell has struggled. He hasn't been dismissed, but the pacers have managed to tie him down. A slight error in length, and the ball will go out of the park.
Starc needs to pull his length back
In the last two World Cups, Starc was an unstoppable force. His full-length inswinging deliveries were a super hit in Australia, New Zealand, and England (2019). But that length won't work in the sub-continent, even with the new ball.
In this WC, searching for that early swing, Starc has bowled 48% of his deliveries in the slot (2-6m) in the first ten overs, conceding at 7.2 runs/over. But, whenever he has pulled his length back and bowled on good length (46%), the economy drops to 2.6. Three out of his four powerplay wickets have come when he has pitched it on a good length.
In Kolkata, batters have smashed at a strike rate of 137 against the pacers when bowled full. This strike rate plummets to 50 when pitched on a good length.
This is the sub-continent, mate. You need to pull your lengths back as you won't get swing.
Proteas bowlers are treacherous against LHB
Warner and Head won't be happy to hear this. Left-handed batters against South Africa have averaged just 13.7, the lowest against an opposition in this World Cup.
The main man of destruction has been Jansen. The lanky pacer has snaffled nine wickets at an average of 10.9. His scalps are the most for a bowler against left-handers in this World Cup. In fact, none of the South African bowlers average over 21 against the lefties in this WC.
Sweep shot - very effective against Maharaj but not Zampa
On a turning track, sweep is the most obvious choice for batters. However, it depends on the bowling speed of the spinners. Against tweakers who bowl it a bit slow, like Maharaj, there is time for the batters to adjust and play the sweep. But a batter needs much more conviction to play the sweep against a spinner who is quicker through the air.
Throughout this World Cup, Maharaj has bowled at an average speed of 83.8 (where ball speed is recorded) compared to Adam Zampa (90.3). Hence, Zampa has picked up six wickets when batters have attempted the sweep shot, the second-most for a bowler in this WC. On the other hand, Maharaj has only one wicket to his name when batters have swept.
To prove the point further, the top four spinners with the most wickets against the sweep shot, Kuldeep (7), Mitchell Santner (7), Zampa (6), and Ravindra Jadeja (5), have an average speed of above 85: Kuldeep (86.3), Santner (87.4), and Jadeja (96.1).
Someone like Adil Rashid, who has bowled at an average speed of 81.7, has conceded at an economy of 12.3 and an average of 21.5 against the sweep shot.
