T20 WC 2026 qualification: Have few teams taken African Games 2024 lightly?

It has been a day of upset. On Monday (March 18), Namibia lost a T20 International (T20I) for the first time against Nigeria. That wasn’t the biggest shock though. Later in the day in Accra, Kenya thrashed South Africa, etching history. The eight-team African Games is producing some surprising results.

Namibia, the 11th-ranked T20I side, were pipped by 38th-ranked Nigeria. This effectively means that Namibia will have about three points knocked off from their rating points. But why should that matter?

While they may have already qualified for the T20 World Cup 2024, in the United States and West Indies, the Eagles certainly had a chance to ensure that they continue to remain in the top 12 rankings. It assures them of an automatic qualification for the T20 World Cup 2026, co-hosted by India and Sri Lanka.

If they do drop out of the top 12, they have two options: 

1) They have to finish in the top eight at the T20 World Cup 2024, as the Netherlands did in 2022, to book their place for the upcoming edition.

2) They should at least remain in the top 12 rankings in T20Is (cut-off June 30, 2024) as either the next two or four (depending on where India and Sri Lanka finish) highest-ranked side makes it through to the T20 World Cup 2026.

For instance, let’s assume that India and Sri Lanka finish in the top eight. Then, the next four highest-ranked sides secure an automatic qualification. If both or one of them don't, the next two highest ranked side secure an automatic qualification.

Those outside the top 12 are then forced to play the regional qualifiers, which will determine who else make it to the 20-team tournament.

Namibia are set to tour Oman for a five-match T20I series in April and both sides have a chance to consolidate their rankings. 

However, that does not explain why Namibia fielded a second-string side without top players like their captain, Gerhard Erasmus, vice-captain JJ Smit and some top-class players like Jan Frylinck, Ruben Trumpelmann, Bernard Scholtz and others. 

That potentially has cost Namibia dearly, at least in the match against Nigeria.

Even Zimbabwe, who aren’t part of the T20 World Cup 2024, have named a Clive Madande-led weakened side. It is prerogative for Zimbabwe to win as many matches as possible as they are currently ranked 13. They have already beaten Namibia, who are two places above them, which is a positive start.

The reason behind not playing a full-fledged team could boil down to the fact that the teams were not aware of the qualification process for the 2026 T20 World Cup. The more points they pick up, the more their chances of an automatic qualification. 

Zimbabwe, for one, should go all guns blazing to pick up as many wins as possible, given that they have missed out on a chance to play the mega event in the US and West Indies, losing to Namibia and Uganda in the qualifier.

With teams potentially losing out on vital rating points with every loss, how costly they be in the long-run?