OPINION
Follow UsCricket is difficult to fully understand. More difficult still is the points system of the World Test Championship. Hence when India lost the fifth Test against England at Edgbaston, social media went abuzz with the easier and incorrect conclusion that they need to win all their remaining Tests to qualify for the WTC final.
First, even if India do manage to win all, their place in the final is not certain. Second, even if they do not win all, they can still qualify based on the outcomes for other teams.
As things stand
One of the reasons for the assumption that India need to win all the remaining six Tests is that the max percentage of points (PCT%) that they will achieve post that will be 68.06%. For context, the two sides that made it to finals last year, India and New Zealand, finished with a PCT% of 72.2% and 70% respectively. But, that cycle was bizarre where-in all teams did not complete their quota of six series, and those who got their home tours done before the pandemic stood at an advantage.
Post the loss at Edgbaston and a five-point over-rate penalty, India have slipped behind Pakistan and are fourth on the points table. Naturally, all the three teams above India have a better chance to make it to the finals. In order to qualify, India will have to leapfrog two of these three teams.
What are India’s chances?
A good thing for them is that Australia and South Africa, currently one and two, play each other in a three-match Test series Down Under later this year. So, there is a potential for them to shoot each other’s chances or one shooting out the other.
In this cycle, with all teams completing the cycle, the competition is tougher and teams can mathematically qualify with a lower PCT%. For sake of simplicity, let us still assume that a team will have to finish at a minimum of 60% to stand a chance. They can qualify at an even lower PCT% but that will have to involve a lot of drawn games and we will be here analyzing all week.
Another consideration that we have taken for this analysis is to assume that Australia, South Africa, and Pakistan are the only realistic contenders threatening India. On paper, West Indies and Sri Lanka can finish above 60% PCT. But, a loss of one Test for the Windies and two for the Lankans in their remaining Tests will keep them away from that number. Considering the teams and the conditions they have to face in their remaining fixtures, it will be remarkable if they end the cycle unscathed further.
Having said all this, there are four scenarios in which India can make it to the finals. In each of these, they will need two out of the three outcomes to work in their favor:
Scenario 1: India 6-0, Max PCT%: 68.06%
1) If India win all their remaining matches that implies Australia will lose at least four of their remaining 10 Tests. India would want Australia to then at least draw a minimum of one of their remaining six Tests.
2) South Africa lose three Tests if they win the other five or lose at least one if they win four and draw the others.
3) Pakistan lose one or draw two.
Scenario 2: India 5-0, Max PCT%: 64.35%
1) If India’s drawn Test is against Australia, they would want Australia to draw or lose at least two more Tests. If the draw is against Bangladesh, Australia will have to lose one more or draw at least two.
2) South Africa lose at least three Tests if they win four. Or lose at least one if they win three and draw the others.
3) Pakistan lose one and draw one or lose 1+ or draw 2+
Scenario 3: India 5-1, Max PCT%: 62.5%
1) If India versus Australia ends as 3-1, India would want Australia to lose one more Test and draw at least two or lose two more. If the scoreline is 4-0, then India would want Australia to draw at least two or lose one and draw one at a minimum.
2) South Africa win maximum four Tests while losing three and drawing one. Or lose at least once but not win not more than three of the remaining eight.
3) Pakistan lose two or do not win more than four of the remaining seven.
Scenario 4: India 4-0, Max PCT%: 60.65%
1) If India vs Australia is 2-0, India would want Australia to lose at least three of the remaining six Tests or not win more than two. If the scoreline is 3-0, Australia should lose at least two of the remaining six or not win more than two. If the scoreline is 4-0. Australia should at minimum lose one more and draw one of the remaining six
2) South Africa should not win more than three Tests and lose at least two. They should lose four if they manage to win the other four.
3) Pakistan should win four or fewer of their remaining seven Tests and lose at least one.
We have obviously not considered the loss of points due to a slow over-rate. Since the remaining six Tests for India will involve a lot of spin, that is unlikely. Based on the standings and the upcoming fixtures, Australia and Pakistan seem the two most likely teams to feature in the final of the second edition of the WTC. The road ahead for India is tough. Considering, what is on offer and what has happened so far, it should be.
