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Follow UsWe are less than two days away from the iconic Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), and with the series tied at 1-1, the expectation is that we will finally, for once, get a 'traditional Australian wicket' in this Border-Gavaskar Trophy, where bat dominates ball. Considering MCG has historically been a batting paradise, it's understandable that many are expecting a flat deck that will see the batters coming to the party.
But there's a twist: the MCG is no longer the batting paradise it used to be.
Decks at the venue have completely changed since the pandemic, and it is now up there as one of the most bowler-friendly venues in the country. In fact, it won't be a surprise if the fourth Test turns out to be the most bowler-dominated Test of this series, yet.
Change in behavior at the MCG in recent times
The Boxing Day Test over the last four years has seen a massive change in the first day of the match as batting averages across innings and sessions have dropped drastically. Scoring on the fresh wicket on Day 1 has not been easy as the average first innings score has dropped from 446 between 2015-19 to 222 since 2020.
The first innings totals have drastically dropped since 2020, with teams getting bowled less than 200 in three of the four instances compared to scores of over 400 which was a common occurrence during the 2015-19 period.
Pacers and spinners both have become more impactful in last four years. Spin used to almost be a non-factor at the MCG during the 2015-19 period. But since the pandemic, the tweakers have come into the picture big time.
In the last four years, each of Australia's four bowlers have had an excellent record at the 'G in Boxing Day Tests. Scott Boland in particular has been mighty impressive: the "MCG specialist" averages 13.8 at the venue, having taken 10 wickets in four innings.
Toss impact & recent results
Toss has had a 50:50 impact in Boxing Day Tests over the last four years; teams who have won the toss and opted to bowl have won on 2/3 instances. Overall, in last four Boxing Day Tests at MCG, teams batting second have won three of the four games
India have been the only team to beat Australia in last 10 years at the 'G, having won the previous two Boxing Day Tests in 2018 and 2020 respectively. Apart from that, Australia have won six of the other eight Tests, registering innings victories in three of those.
Sheffield Shield since 2022
Across the last two seasons, MCG has been the best venue for bowlers in the Sheffield Shield. Not only is the bowling average and the strike rate the venue the best among all venues, but bowlers have bowled out the opposition in majority of the innings, taking 156 of the 160 available wickets in 16 innings.
Pacers, in particular, have had a terrific record at the MCG in the Sheffield Shield since 2022. The fast bowlers have an average 19.5, which is significantly better than other venues. The economy rate is also below three, with the strike rate of 42.4 also being the best among all venues.
Across the last two seasons in the Shield, batters have had a terrible time on the fresh MCG pitch as they have averaged 19.1, with 191 being the average innings one total.
All said, should the MCG behave like it has across the last four years, we could be in for a pretty short Test match. Especially considering how batters across both sides have struggled.
