The lower-order has bailed India out often — but that might not happen in the final

India are in the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) for the second cycle running, and well, there’s good news and bad news.

The good news is that they are within touching distance of the WTC mace; they are effectively five days away from ending the dreaded 10-year-long trophy drought. 

The bad news is that it’s going to be tough on the batting front. 

Because of the conditions and Australia’s famed pace attack, yes. But also because come the final, it might not be possible for the lower-order and lower middle-order to bail the team out, like it did throughout the cycle.

Considering the stacked nature of India’s top-order, the statement above might sound preposterous. But it actually isn’t.

Between August 2021 and March 2023 (i.e. the duration of the current cycle), India’s lower middle-order and lower-order (No.6 to No.9) averaged 27.4 — no other team’s lower-order was as prolific. 

Only England’s lower-order (3615 runs) added more runs, but they took 12 innings more and averaged considerably lower. 

Below are the best performers with the bat for the side in this ongoing cycle. The list is topped by Axar Patel, who batted all but one of his innings at No.7 or lower, and features four batters who predominantly ply their trade in the lower-middle order.

For any Test side, having an extremely competent lower and lower middle-order is a boon. It provides a cushion and a lot of assurance and, in a way, tends to make the side formidable, especially if the top-order isn't firing.

Here’s where the problem lies for India: for the past 18 months, it’s the lower-order that’s predominantly done the heavy lifting, with the top five, barring Rohit Sharma, proving to be extremely unreliable and inconsistent.

In the current cycle, only West Indies, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh and South Africa’s Top 5 batters have fared worse than that of India. 

Even then, India have ended up making the final of this current cycle. Two of the three sides below them have finished 9th and 10th, respectively, while Zimbabwe won none of the two matches they played. 

That is purely down to the competence of their lower middle-order and lower-order. Or, in other words, the competence of Axar Patel, Rishabh Pant, Shreyas Iyer, Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin — with the bat.

That India are in the final of this WTC cycle is almost exclusively down to the rescue acts done by the lower middle-order and lower-order in crunch moments. 

The very first series of the cycle saw the top-order step up (Rahul and Rohit fared exceptionally, and Kohli chipped in with consistent, valuable contributions), but even there, the Shami-Bumrah partnership at Lord’s and Shardul Thakur’s cameo at The Oval were needed to rescue the side. Not to mention the consistent showings of Jadeja.

Later that year, in the first Test against New Zealand in Kanpur, in deep trouble at 51/5 in the second innings, it was valuable hands from Ashwin (32), Saha (61*) and Axar (28*) that drove the side to safety. 

Away in Bangladesh in December last year, it was a 159-run stand between Pant and Iyer that pushed the side beyond 300 in the first innings, and invaluable hands from Axar (34), Iyer (29*) and Ashwin (42*) that prevented an embarrassing defeat in Dhaka. 

The rescue acts from the lower-order went to a whole different level at the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, though, as India’s No.6, No.7, No.8 and No.9 batters collectively averaged more than the Top 5 in the first three Tests of the series, where the games were played on extremely spin-friendly wickets.

The top-order came to the party in Ahmedabad on a wicket that proved to be flat, but that Test, in many ways, was inconsequential, as India had not only retained the BGT by then but also sealed a spot in the WTC final.

Come the final, however, the Indian Top 5 will enjoy no such luxury — in all likelihood, it’s boom or bust. 

As referenced several times above, Axar, Iyer, Pant, Jadeja and Ashwin have been the architects of several rescue jobs. At The Oval against Australia, India will be without each of Axar (team combination), Iyer and Pant (injury), while there’s a high probability they might leave out Ashwin. 

India hypothetically proceeding with a bowling line-up consisting of Jadeja, Shami, Siraj, Shardul, and Unadkat / Umesh will significantly weaken their lower-order, leaving Jadeja as the only reliable hand in the lower middle-order and lower-order. Both Thakur and Unadkat are capable of chipping in with the bat, but they are no Ashwin / Axar. 

Even if Ashwin plays, India will still struggle to fill the void left by Axar and Pant. 

Pant, mind you, was the reason India stayed alive in both the one-off Test against England at Edgbaston (146) and in the third Test against South Africa in Cape Town (100*) after the top-order had collapsed on both occasions. 

Considering a huge portion of the team’s batting has effectively been wiped off, then, the onus is on the top-order to step up more than ever.

But despite the numbers reading gloomy, there’s reason to be optimistic. While Rohit has been in outstanding form in Tests recently and averaged 52.57 the last time he toured England, his opening partner Shubman Gill is in the form of his life — across formats. Additionally, Gill enjoyed a very fruitful mini County stint with Glamorgan last year, averaging 61.00, striking a ton and a fifty.

Pujara is already acclimatized to the conditions, having racked up a mountain of runs for Sussex — 545 runs @ 68.12 this season — while Kohli seems to have rediscovered his mojo. Kohli, in the last Test he played, also got the nagging monkey off his back by smashing his first Test ton in three and a half years. 

There’s a mystery surrounding Rahane, but he, too, currently seems to be in a very good headspace.

The last two times India played one-off Tests in England — at Edgbaston last year and the WTC final against New Zealand in 2021 — the top-order was directly responsible for the team’s defeat. 

While against England, a first-innings collapse and failure to kill the game off in the second innings proved to be fatal, the inaugural WTC final saw an hour of madness on the morning of Day 6 — where India lost 8 wickets for 99 runs — that cost them the mace.

Come the final at The Oval, the same core has the golden opportunity to make amends.