India on top of WTC table but treading on thin ice

New Zealand’s unexpected series win in India has given an interesting spin to the race to the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25. The Kiwis have climbed up a few spots, moving to number four on the points table with a Percentage of Points (PCT) of 50. 

Sri Lanka (55.56), Australia (62.5) and India (62.8) are placed above the Kiwis South Africa are at fifth position with at PCT of 47.6. But don’t be fooled by the current standings. The embarrassing defeat against New Zealand has jeopardized India’s chances and they can well miss out on making their third final in a row. 

On the other hand, South Africa, placed fifth, can realistically win their upcoming five Tests which will fuel their PCT to 69.4. 

India have tough assignments coming up with one Test left against New Zealand, the side that seems to have cracked the formula of beating India in India. They will then fly to Australia for a five-match series Down Under, one of the toughest places to conquer for any team, even if India won their previous two away series there. 

The maximum India can reach is a PCT of 74.6 but for that, they will need to win all these six Tests which seems quite improbable. Five wins along with a draw can lift them to 69.3. Given South Africa can reach 69.4 which will almost seal one spot for the final in Lord’s, the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy can become a knockout bout for the other slot. 

Currently five teams are in contention to reach the final, their maximum PCT are as follows:

Australia - Maximum PCT 76.3%

Matches Remaining - 5 [5 vs IND (H)]

Sri Lanka - Maximum PCT 63.63%

Matches Remaining - 2 [2 vs SA (A)]

New Zealand - Maximum PCT 64.29%

Matches Remaining - 4 [1 vs IND (A), 3 vs ENG (H)]

South Africa - Maximum PCT 69.4%

Matches Remaining - 5 [1 vs BAN (A), 2 vs SL (H), 2 vs PAK (H)]

Thus, Rohit Sharma and Co., despite being at the summit of the table right now, are treading on thin ice to make it to their third consecutive WTC final.

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