ANALYSIS
Follow UsBetween January 1, 2018 and March 5, 2020, the Indian pace unit ran riot in Test cricket. The Indian fast bowlers, in this period, sent down 12,463 balls at the Test level, across conditions, and picked up 298 wickets at a staggering average of 22.1.
No one came close when it came to potency. Among pace units that bowled 9,000 or more balls in this period, South Africa (25.3) were the only other group to average under 26. For a two-year period, the Indian pace battery was, indisputably, the best in the entire world.
From an Indian perspective, it was no coincidence that this upturn in pace fortunes resulted in a direct improvement in results in SENA countries: having won 1 out of 22 Tests in SENA countries between 2011 and 2017, they won 4 in 2018 alone (1 in South Africa, 1 in England and 2 in Australia).
And this number could so easily have been 6 had they been more clinical in England, where they lost a plethora of close matches.
The Indian pacers bowled 9,173 balls in SENA countries in this period, and, between them, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami and Ishant Sharma delivered 7,512 of them (81.89%).
And, fair to say, they were devastating — both as a trio and as individuals.
Overall, in this period, in SENA countries, the Indian pace unit took 183 wickets at an average of 26.5.
But things have since taken a turn for the worse.
Since September 2021, India have played a total of 6 SENA Tests — 3 in England, 3 in South Africa — the most recent of them being the World Test Championship (WTC) final against Australia at The Oval.
In this period, the Indian pacers have averaged an eye-watering 32.4.
In the said time frame, India have failed to defend fourth-innings target thrice (including failing to defend 378 against England) and have lost 4 of the 6 SENA Tests they’ve played, slipping to a comprehensive series defeat against an Anrich Nortje-less South Africa.
So, what exactly has gone wrong?
‘No Bumrah’ would be the first reason (or excuse, whatever way you want to look at it) that will come to the mind of many people. That, however, is factually incorrect.
For as unbelievable as it may seem, Bumrah featured in five of these six aforementioned Tests. The only match he took no part in was the recent WTC Final against Australia.
Shami, like Bumrah, has also featured in five out of six Tests. The pair, in fact, played together four times, India going on to lose three of those Tests.
What’s gone wrong is this: India have failed to fill the void left by Ishant Sharma, and that’s what’s been hurting the side away from home in the recent past — big time.
Ishant bowled his last ball for the country in Tests outside India on August 26th in Leeds, and in a way, the Indian pace attack has never been the same since then.
How Ishant’s discipline enabled Shami and Bumrah to thrive and provided the team control
After a 1,115-day hiatus, Ishant re-debuted in SENA on January 13, 2018 at SuperSport Park, Centurion. Considering his first stint was a massive disappointment — 80 wickets in 27 Tests @ 45.31 — not a lot was expected of Ishant when he was recalled. However, in a turnaround pretty much no one saw coming, the veteran turned into a completely different bowler in his second stint in SENA countries, scalping 50 wickets at an average of 23.36.
His overall returns were, in no uncertain terms, elite. What really stood out, however, was his economy rate: in the 14 SENA Tests Ishant played between 2018 and 2021, he had an ER of 2.69.
It was nearly as good as Bumrah and head-and-shoulders above every other Indian seamer that played SENA Tests during this period.
In fact, when it came to control, Ishant found himself in the top most tier. Dot.
Between Jan 2018 and Sep 2021, in the entire world, among pacers who bowled 400 or more overs in SENA countries, only three bowlers had a better economy than Ishant’s 2.69.
Indeed, pretty much no one looks at the economy rate of a bowler while skimming through their Test record. However, while it is true that economy rates matter little in isolation, they go a long way in making partnerships tick.
Bowler A exerting persistent pressure bowling from one end, for instance, will embolden bowler B to attack more. Should these two players bowl in tandem, then bowler B can afford to go for broke because even if he leaks runs, it really won’t hurt the side too much because things are tight at the other end.
Bowler A keeping things tight will also automatically benefit bowler B, for the batters will try to force the issue against the second (more attacking) bowler. That’ll automatically increase the chances of bowler B picking wickets.
Philander (bowler A) and Rabada (bowler B) were extremely successful as a partnership for this very reason.
In India’s case, between the 2018-2021 period, batting sides weren’t allowed to breathe at all. For while Shami was their bowler ‘B’, they had two seamers of the ‘A’ mould in Ishant and Bumrah.
When Bumrah and Shami or Ishant and Shami bowled in tandem, batting sides were forced to take chances against Shami. They were often doomed when Shami was in the midst of one of those spells he bowls.
Meanwhile, when Bumrah and Ishant bowled in tandem, it was endless questioning from both ends. One mistake and the batters were done. They had to be switched on for the entire duration.
From the table above, if you look at Shami’s record in isolation, it really isn’t great. However, the presence of Bumrah and Ishant helped amplify his impact. Shami was able to go about his business without really worrying about control (in Starc-esque fashion, you could say).
No Ishant, no control
For India, the ‘control’ part has gone haywire since moving on from Ishant.
In six SENA Tests since phasing out Ishant — starting from Oval 2021 — Indian pacers have leaked runs at an E.R of 3.6.
For context, the subsequent number in the previous 16 SENA Tests (excluding BGT 2020/21, where India were unable to field a consistent pace attack for the entire series) was 3.2.
But, as you can see from the table below, it’s not just the economy rate which has taken a beating; the absence of control has had a cascading effect. In the last six matches India have played in SENA countries (post Ishant’s phase-out, that is), they’ve been convincingly out-bowled by their opposition counterparts. The Indian pacers have nearly averaged 10 more than the opposition seamers.
In this period (starting from Oval 2021), India have tried three pacers to fill the Ishant-shape void: Mohammed Siraj, Shardul Thakur and Umesh Yadav. At times (specifically in England), they’ve fielded four frontline seamers.
However, none of them have been able to provide the threat or control Ishant did during the three-year period between 2018 and 2021.
Palpably, Shardul, Siraj and Umesh all have not fared well in SENA countries in the past 18 months. The lack of control, however, is truly alarming.
The least expensive of the lot has been Shardul, and he’s conceded at 3.7 RPO — which is one run more per over (on average) than what Ishant Sharma did for a three-year period.
The lack of control provided by the third (and fourth) seamer(s) have gone a long way in neutralizing the threat of the entire attack.
When Bumrah and Shami have played (and bowled) together, for instance, batting sides have known runs will invariably flow once they see off the first spell. They’ve known they can feast on the others, who will err and provide them with the odd boundary ball that can be taken advantage of.
In the one-off Test vs England last year at Edgbaston, Bumrah and Shami bowled 73 overs between them in the Test and conceded 284 runs at an E.R of 3.68. Siraj and Shardul, meanwhile, sent down just 44.3 overs but conceded 277 runs at an eye-watering E.R of 6.25.
Lack of control (overall) was also precisely why India were unable to put Australia under pressure on Day 1 of the WTC Final despite winning a very good toss. Shami and Siraj started off exceptionally well, conceding just 29 off the first 12 overs while also removing Usman Khawaja, but in the next three overs, Umesh and Shardul released all the pressure by leaking 25 runs.
With time, Siraj and Shami, both of whom are not known for their control, also started getting taken to the cleaners. Australia eventually ended up racking up 469 runs in the first innings at 3.86 runs per over. Three of India’s four seamers conceded at over 3.60 RPO.
Not having a third / fourth seamer that can bowl tight also, more often than not, ends up exerting too much pressure on the two frontline seamers to deliver. That is never ideal, and can end up having a detrimental effect on the strike bowlers.
All these things put into perspective how invaluable the presence of Ishant Sharma was. He was lethal, he provided control and made the entire pace unit tick.
In the current set-up, unless the best two seamers operate together, opposition batters are able to breathe easy (barring the rare case where the third seamer has a blinder of a day). They know that things will eventually get comfortable altogether once the two primary threats are ground down.
It is why the Men in Blue have under-performed with the ball in 4 of their last 5 SENA Tests despite Bumrah featuring in four, and Shami featuring in all five.
The need of the hour for India in Tests, then, is filling the Ishant-shaped void. There are plenty of speedsters in the country that can currently bowl great balls, but India need reliable seamers who can bowl consistently good spells; workhorses who can run-in endlessly, build pressure by shutting one end out and bring their compatriots into play.
That way, it’ll be interesting to see how both Mukesh Kumar and Jaydev Unadkat fare against West Indies if they do end up getting a chance. Unadkat has made a living out of being a workhorse for Saurashtra, and also had an impressive second debut against Bangladesh in Mirpur last year, returning match figures of 27-5-67-3.
There, he performed the Ishant role to perfection. Given his experience and body of work, it was quite surprising that India decided against picking him for the WTC final.
Mukesh, meanwhile, in his 39-match first-class career, has already earned the reputation of being a toiler that runs in and tests the batter endlessly, not too dissimilar to someone like a Scott Boland.
“The thing that impressed me the most was his (Mukesh) ability to bowl long spells in that probing outside off-stump line throughout the day,” former Bengal coach Arun Lal recently said about the speedster in an interview to the Indian Express.
“If you have seen Mohammed Abbas of Pakistan, he is just like him. He is not 140kph, but he will not give you an inch. If Mukesh is bowling, you need a couple of good slip fielders.”
This was exactly what the post-2018 Ishant brought to the table. India have moved on from Ishant, but the picture has never been clearer: they desperately need to replace him, and need to do it ASAP for their own good.
