STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Follow UsQ. What connects Mitchell Starc, Trent Boult, Chris Woakes and Kagiso Rabada?
A. They’ve all taken 50+ powerplay wickets (overs 1-10) in ODI cricket since January 2014. These four pacers are elite new-ball bowlers in 50-over cricket who have proven to be outright game-changers up-front.
What also connects them is that, in the past 9 years, with the new ball, they’ve all been statistically inferior to a certain Matt Henry.
Are we throwing some shade here? Nope, not at all.
It is rather a measure of how stupendously good Henry has been, well, throughout his ODI career.
Since Henry’s ODI debut (January 31, 2014), five bowlers have taken 50+ ODI wickets in the powerplay.
In a list involving Starc, Boult, Woakes and Rabada, Henry boasts the best average, best strike rate and the second-best economy rate.
Whether he’s outrightly been the ‘best new-ball bowler’ is a completely different debate altogether (a lot of different factors in play here), but what’s indisputable is this: Matt Henry is a world-class ODI bowler.
It is a fact that needs to be amplified as for the longest time now, Henry’s achievements in 50-over cricket have flown completely under the radar.
Cast your mind back to the 2019 World Cup. You probably remember *that* spell from Henry that wrecked India in the semi-final. But Henry’s contribution to the Black Caps in that World Cup was more than just that blitz versus India.
His exploits with the new ball — throughout the tournament — were integral to New Zealand making the final. Remarkably, in the 2019 World Cup, Henry took more wickets in the 1-10 phase than every other New Zealand bowler put together.
He and Boult bowled 90% of New Zealand’s powerplay overs in the 2019 WC and there he comfortably outbowled his compatriot.
Not only Boult, Henry nearly outbowled every other pacer with the new ball in the 2019 World Cup. He took more wickets in the 1-10 phase than any other bowler (8) and had the second-best strike rate and third-best average among all seamers who delivered 30 or more powerplay overs.
Four years on, little has changed. Henry will enter the 2023 ODI World Cup as one of the hottest new-ball prospects: both in terms of his form and pedigree. His pedigree has been established already, but his form is no less daunting.
Since the start of 2020, he is one of three pacers to have taken 20+ wickets in the powerplay, and he’s done that while boasting a scarcely-believable economy of 3.7.
Any side would kill to have just one new-ball bowler of Henry’s quality but unfairly enough, New Zealand have two. His partner, Boult, is not present in the list above since he’s taken *only* 17 powerplay wickets but turns out, he’s taken them at an average of 11.1 and an economy rate of 3.4.
The pair played together in only two of the four ODIs against England but still managed to give a sneak peek of the damage they could potentially do together as a new-ball duo come the World Cup.
Across those two games, Henry and Boult combinedly bowled 13 overs and took 6 wickets at an average of 10, conceding just 60 runs.
At The Rose Bowl, they had England teetering at 28/4 after 7.2 overs, the duo accounting for the wickets of Bairstow, Root, Stokes and Brook.
Like they did four years ago, it is almost inevitable that Henry and Boult will run through multiple top-orders at the World Cup.
Henry was a locked-in starter even before Southee’s injury due to just how much more lethal he’s been in ODI cricket compared to the latter (of late), and with Southee now nursing an injury, Henry is certain to start pretty much every game in the World Cup.
Southee’s injury is not a ‘devastating blow’ for the Kiwis but they’ll certainly miss his experience in India. It is one area where he has a discernible edge over Henry, who to date has played only two ODIs in India.
That being said, Henry’s record elsewhere in Asia suggests that he’s more than capable of adapting. The right-armer averages 18.9 in UAE and 33.8 in Pakistan.
He has a fantastic powerplay record across these two countries, having taken 9 wickets at an average of 22.22.
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To this point, then, Henry the ODI bowler almost seems too good to be true. But he does come with a flaw, and it’s a big one. In no uncertain terms, the 31-year-old is a liability at the death.
In his ODI career, the right-armer has sent down 87.4 overs in the 41-50 phase and has conceded 739 runs at an economy of 8.4.
Since his ODI debut (Jan 31, 2014), among pacers who have sent down 80+ overs at the death (overs 41-50), only Southee and Jason Holder have fared worse.
Considering his economy rate at the death in T20s is 10.70 across a 71-inning sample size, it is unlikely Henry will drastically improve on this front (at least immediately), so it’ll be up to New Zealand to use him in a way that will maximize his threat and minimize his ineffectiveness at the back end.
It won’t be easy, considering the Black Caps, in all likelihood, will field only three seamers in the XI, meaning everyone will be required to bowl at the death. But with Lockie Ferguson being a middle/death-over specialist and Boult’s slog-over bowling having gone up levels in the past few years, the Kiwis might just be better off front-loading Henry, not giving him more than a couple of overs towards the back end.
Henry has proven to be an ‘all-conditions’ bowler but the ‘all-phase’ bowler tag is something he’s not been able to attain, and it’s what has held him back from evolving into a monster in white-ball cricket.
But he’s more than made up for it with his potency up-front, and thus will enter the 2023 World Cup as a genuine new-ball behemoth.
Hide your openers, for Matt Henry is hungry for wickets, and he’s coming to hunt them down!
*all statistics in the article are as of September 22, 2023
