South Africa one loss away from elimination despite perfect start

Seventeen years ago, at the inaugural T20 World Cup in 2007, South Africa made a perfect start to their campaign by winning each of their first four matches in the competition. However, the extremely tight nature of the group they were in saw the Proteas get knocked out after suffering just one loss, in their final game of the Super 8s stages against India.

17 years on, could history repeat itself?

As it stands, Aiden Markram’s South Africa have won each of their first six matches in this ongoing T20WC. They went 4/4 in the group stages and are in pole position to make it to the semis, having started the Super 8s with wins over USA and England.

However, the Proteas could end up enduring serious heartbreak if they suffer a loss in their final Super 8s game against West Indies. 

How can South Africa be eliminated from here?

As it stands:

South Africa - 4 points, NRR  +0.625

West Indies - 2 points, NRR  +1.814

England, 2 points, NRR  +0.412

Remaining fixtures in the group

USA vs England on June 23 (10.30 AM local time)

West Indies vs South Africa on June 23 (8:30 PM local time)

So, South Africa will be knocked out if:

> England beat USA by a margin decent enough to take their NRR over South Africa’s. Say, approximately, a 25-30-ish run margin.

> West Indies beat South Africa (margin of victory doesn’t matter here).

If both the aforementioned things happen, then there will be a three-way tie between England, West Indies and South Africa. In that case, both England and West Indies will progress by virtue of having a better NRR. 

That being said, South Africa will progress if:

> England lose to USA  (or)

> England beat USA by a slender margin, and South Africa lose to West Indies by a slender margin (or)

> England versus USA is washed out (or)

> South Africa versus West Indies is washed out

If both the remaining games in Group 2 are washed out, then South Africa and West Indies will be the two teams that will progress to the semis. 

Meanwhile, England and South Africa will progress if England beat USA and either a) South Africa beat West Indies or b) South Africa vs West Indies is washed out.

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