COMBINATION ANALYSIS
Follow UsA hamstring tear while playing for Northern Superchargers in the 2024 Hundred competition has ruled Ben Stokes out of England’s upcoming three-Test series against Sri Lanka at home. It will be the first time Stokes will be missing Test matches as England’s red-ball captain.
You barely see England missing out on players in whites. Despite playing more Tests than any other country, the Three Lions have had a stable batting order since Brendon McCullum and Stokes took charge, with odd changes based on conditions, combinations and form. Now, they will be missing two key players due to injury — Zak Crawley who injured a finger during the Test series against West Indies and Stokes.
While Stokes has had middling numbers as England’s full-time Test captain — batting average 35.3, bowling average 31.6 — he serves a bigger purpose in the XI. Firstly, he is the nucleus from which the rest of the side derives its energy. Both of his hundreds during this period have come after a defeat for England in the previous Test. Whenever fit, he has been a partnership breaker with the ball and has bowled marathon spells in long periods of stasis. He makes things happen.
From a combination point of view, he provides England with the fourth seam-bowling option, making them a five-man bowling attack, excluding Joe Root. He is also the number six batter.
Thus, Stokes is the consequential link that keeps England’s team balance in shape.
Surprisingly, England haven't announced a replacement for Stokes. The first Test against the touring Lankans starts on August 21. There are always chances of a last-minute announcement, but, at present, it looks like the hosts would be happy to test themselves without their talisman.
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Not to forget, England would be opening with Dan Lawrence who comes in place of the injured Crawley. More of a dasher, Lawrence has played only seven of his 208 first-class innings as an opener. Hence, there is instability at the top of the order as well as in the middle order.
Also, Ollie Pope will be leading England for the first time. Former skipper Michael Atherton has mentioned that captaincy over the course of a series could be tricky for the new man in the job, further highlighting Stokes’ absence.
England have 13 players in the squad as yet and lack options to cover up for Stokes. There are only two ways in which they can build their XI and we look at the pros and cons of both:
Case 1: A debut for Jordan Cox
England named the 23-year-old uncapped Essex cricketer, Jordan Cox in the Test squad for this series against Sri Lanka. Cox is a wicketkeeper-batter who was himself surprised with the call-up. As Cox himself told ESPNCricinfo, he was eyeing the white-ball sides. “I thought I was a lot closer to the white-ball side of things. I definitely didn't think the call was going to be for the Test side," he said.
Originally selected as a spare batter, England have the option of bringing him in at number six to replace Stokes. His wicketkeeping skills might not be put to use given the Three Lions have already identified Jamie Smith as their next glovesman and number seven batter. Smith vindicated the faith, averaging 51.8 in three Tests against West Indies last month, including two half-centuries and a top score of 95.
The combinational downside of playing Cox is that England will have only four specialist bowlers. Root can fill in as the part-time off-spinner but the numbers in Manchester don’t really encourage spinners much — only 19.5% of the wickets for spinners in the last six Tests at the venue. Also, the hosts already hold a specialist off-spin option in Shoaib Bashir who bowled a record-breaking spell earlier this summer, picking 5/41 in Nottingham.
Hence, Cox’s inclusion only fills the batting slots for England but keeps them a bowler short.
In the ongoing County Championship, Cox scored 763 runs in 11 innings, averaging 69.4 before a medical emergency curtailed his season. He played all his innings this season either at No.4 or No.5, so slotting in the middle-order won't be an issue for the right-hander.
At the same time, he also has plenty of experience opening the batting, having opened 27 times in first-class cricket. So Cox' inclusion also gives England the option of possibly opening with the debutant and playing Lawrence in the middle-order. But it is to be noted that Cox hasn't opened the batting in first class cricket since 2021.
Case 2: Smith at six, Woakes at seven?
To ensure five frontline bowling options, England can play four seamers. For that, they will have to move Chris Woakes a spot above in the batting order. He will take the number seven spot with Jamie Smith moving to six.
England can thus play four seamers among the pool of five in their current squad. Most likely, one of Matthew Potts or Olly Stone will get a chance to play. Potts could be ahead in this pecking order given he was part of England’s squad against West Indies but didn’t get a game.
But this call will affect England’s batting depth. While Woakes has proved himself to be a capable batter, the Three Lions are used to batting deep. There have been times when they have had Adil Rashid at number 11, framing the rare case of all batters in the XI with a first-class hundred.
However, Woakes averages 26.6 in Tests since 2023, a decent number for a lower-order batter. Also, he averages 70.3 in Test cricket at number seven, including his only Test hundred - 137* against India at Lord’s in 2018. Hence, this looks like a more pragmatic move for England to cover up for Stokes.
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