Day 3 Look ahead: Follow-on threat looms large over India

This Test has just gone from bad to worse for India. With Ajinkya Rahane at the crease and India five down while trailing by 318 runs, there is no need to say how dire their situation is. Not to mention, they are just one wicket away from entering into the tailender's territory.  

Well! Considering Australia's position at the end of Day One, there was something to cheer for when they managed to bowl out Australia under 480 runs. From 361/3, Indian bowlers picked up the next seven wickets for 108 runs on a relatively easier batting track. 

But, with only six potential batters, India's top order had to go big. To their agony, none of the top four crossed the 15-run mark. Thanks to Ravindra Jadeja and Ajinkya Rahane's 71-run partnership for the fifth wicket, India are currently in a better position. After scoring a 51-ball 48, Jadeja was dismissed at the stroke of stumps. 

Rahane is alongside KS Bharat, fighting to avoid the follow-on. India needs another 118 runs to avoid the follow-on. 

Follow-on 

As this is the final of an ICC tournament, with the trophy in mind, they are likely to enforce it. In addition, the weather in England can be unpredictable. With all these factors, India will be batting again if they fail to score 119 runs more. 

Apart from the 2001 Kolkata Test, Australia have been exceptional. In the 16 times they have enforced the follow-on since 2000, they have won 13 and drew twice. 

If they enforce the follow-on, it also depends on how many overs they would have bowled in the second innings. To attack them in the third innings, the Australian skipper would be mindful of them being fresh. 

In 16 matches where they have enforced the follow-on, Australia have bowled 100+ overs thrice, winning two and drawing one. The draw was against South Africa in 2023 (owing to rain). In five other games, they have bowled 80+ overs. 

In the last five matches, they have bowled between 70-99 twice; in both, and tasted victories. They have bowled 38 overs in this innings, and Australia will look to wrap things up as early as possible.

As for India, the last time they were made to follow-on, Virat Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara were just three Tests old, Ashwin, Umesh, Jadeja, Shami, and Rohit were yet to make their Test debuts, and Shubman Gill wasn't even in the teens.  

If India bats again, how do Indian batters fare in the second innings? To be precise, not that great. In Tests outside Asia since 2021, apart from Pujara and Rohit Sharma, none of the other current squad Indian batters average above 35. 

Can India's tail put on a fight?

When India toured England in 2021, their tail (8-11) showed some fighting spirit. In five matches, they had scored 438 runs at an average of 17.6 with three 50+ scores. Among those three, two belonged to Shardul Thakur at the same venue. Mohammed Shami scored an unbeaten 56 at Lord's. 

Shardul has played some match-saving cameos in recent times. In the famous Gabba Test match, India were at 186/6 when Shardul came into bat. Alongside Washington Sundar, he forged a 123-run partnership for the seventh wicket against the same bowling line-up (barring Scott Boland). He was the highest run scorer for India in their first innings. 

Even in the Oval Test in 2021, he registered twin half-centuries batting at number eight. They need some 'Lord' at The Oval once again. 

Rahane needs support to repeat 2014 Lord's Test heroics

The 2014 Lord's Test is remembered fondly for Ishant Sharma's outburst. But, Rahane's 103 in the first innings on a green top gets shadowed. 

Rahane came into bat when India were 86/3, and he was constantly running out of partners. At 145/7, he joined hands with Bhuvneshwar Kumar and forged a 90-run partnership for the eighth wicket and a 40-run partnership with Mohammed Shami for the ninth. From 145/7, Rahane and the lower-order batters helped India reach 295. 

If India need to avoid the follow-on, they need a similar herculean effort from Rahane and the other batters.