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Follow UsThe World Cup 2023 is closer to its end. With only a week left for the league stage, two teams have confirmed their berth in the semi-finals: India, at the top of the table, and South Africa. Australia are almost through with ten points. However, they need to win one of their remaining to games against Afghanistan on 7th November or Bangladesh on November 11th to seal a top-four spot. New Zealand, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are in the mix for a top-four finish as well.
The teams that are out of contention are Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Netherlands, and the d̶e̶f̶e̶n̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ deflated 2019 champions England. These four teams are out of the 2023 World Cup, but the games between or against them are not dead rubbers.
With ICC's mid-tournament clarification on the 2025 Champions Trophy qualification, there is something to fight for the bottom four teams. Teams ending in the top seven, alongside the hosts Pakistan, will be a part of the event.
After Sri Lanka's loss to Bangladesh in Match 38, only five teams are confirmed. India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Afghanistan (according to the standings on 6th November) are the teams. Pakistan, at number five, gained automatic qualification.
So, what exactly do the bottom four teams need to do to acquire the remaining two spots? Let us look at the scenarios:
England: Bottom of the table with 2 Points
England have to win both their remaining games. If they win both their matches (against the Netherlands and Pakistan), they will attain six points. Then, Bangladesh (seventh) and Sri Lanka (eighth) will have to lose their respective matches for England to be ahead on points.
If both Bangladesh (vs Australia) and Sri Lanka (vs New Zealand) win their respective games, and the Dutch lose their last, it will be down to Net Run Rate between England, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The best two teams with NRR will go through.
To go past Bangladesh's NRR of -1.142, England need a win by a margin of 64+ runs (assuming they score 300) against the Netherlands. Bangladesh currently have a better NRR among the bottom four teams.
In the unlikely scenario of the Netherlands beating India after losing to England and England, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh winning all their remaining games, all four bottom teams will be at six points, and again, it will be the game of NRR.
If England win against the Dutch and lose against Pakistan, then they would want all the other three teams to lose their respective games.
A loss against the Netherlands will put them in jeopardy, and they will have to win big against Pakistan and hope both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh lose by a massive margin.
Netherlands: Ninth on the table with 4 points
The Dutch have a chance to go past all these three teams. Wins in both their remaining games will take them to eight points, and no one will be able to catch them. Even a win against England and a washout against India or vice versa will see them acquire the seventh spot with seven points.
However, if they lose one game, they will be dependent on others. England should lose to Pakistan if they win against the Netherlands, and Sri Lanka/Bangladesh or both should lose or suffer a washout in their last. In this scenario, the Men in Orange will qualify by points.
If they lose both games, which includes a loss against England, all the other three teams, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & England, should go through the same fate in their last encounter. As all four teams will have four points, teams with a better NRR will go through.
Sri Lanka: Eighth on the table with 4 points
Sri Lanka are playing New Zealand in their last game. A win will take them to six points. Not enough to seem them through on points. To qualify on points, they would want Bangladesh to lose their last game and the Netherlands to lose both. In this scenario, even if England win both games, Sri Lanka will go through as they will be one of the only two teams with six points.
If Bangladesh wins, then the Netherlands should lose both, and England should lose to Pakistan. In this scenario, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will end up with six points, and they will go through.
A loss against the Kiwis will put them in threat. In this case, Bangladesh must suffer a significant loss, and the Netherlands or England should win only one game out of the two. A double for England works in favour of Sri Lanka. Even a double for the Netherlands will help Sri Lanka. However, if the Dutch lose to England, they must also lose to India.
Bangladesh: Seventh on the table with 4 points
Both the Asian teams are in similar situations. Bangladesh need a win to get to six points. To qualify on points, they would want Sri Lanka to lose their last game and the Netherlands to lose both. England's consecutive win wouldn't matter in this case, as Bangladesh and England will go through with six points.
If Sri Lanka win against New Zealand, then the Netherlands should lose both, and England should lose to Pakistan.
For Bangladesh, a loss against Australia means Sri Lanka should lose against New Zealand, the Netherlands win against England, and lose against India, or even better, win against both. However, Bangladesh should ensure they do not lose by a massive margin.
Note: All scenarios after Match 38 - Sri Lanka vs Bangladesh
