WTC Final: What will happen if India and Australia finish with identical PCT?

On the back of a heavy 184-run defeat at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), India’s chances of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) Final are hanging by thread. 

Their PCT (Points Percentage) is just 52.78%, well behind second-placed Australia’s 61.46%. South Africa have already qualified for the WTC Final so India will need multiple results to go their way from here in order to stand a chance of making it to the summit at Lord’s next year. 

India can still finish above Australia if they win the fifth Test in Sydney and the Aussies get whitewashed away in Sri Lanka. Should that happen, they will make it through to the WTC Final for the third cycle running.

READ: Despite MCG loss, India can still make it to the WTC Final - here’s how

But what if India and Australia both finish with identical points and identical PCT? Who will qualify then?

As it stands, India have 114 points (52.78% PCT) while Australia have 118 points (61.46% PCT). India have only one more match left (at SCG) but Australia have three (SCG Test vs India and two away in Sri Lanka).

If India win the fifth Test in Sydney, and if Australia draw both their matches in Sri Lanka, then both teams will finish with a PCT of 55.26%.

So, should this unlikely tie happen, who will progress to the final to face South Africa?

According to the ICC Playing Conditions for the 2023-25 WTC, if two or more teams have an identical Points Percentage at the end of the group stage, they will be ordered by higher number of series wins. This is according to clause 16.12.2.

So as per this rule, India will progress to the final by virtue of having won more series in this cycle than Australia. 

In this 2023-25 WTC cycle, the Men in Blue have won three series - against West Indies away and versus England and Bangladesh at home. 

However, Australia have won just two series, away in New Zealand and at home against Pakistan. This count will remain two if they draw the BGT and also draw 0-0 away in Sri Lanka.

So by virtue of being ahead on this particular tie-breaker, India will progress to the WTC Final if they end up with the same PCT as Australia.