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Follow UsOn the back of a horror final session on the final day at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), India have gone 1-2 down in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. Rohit Sharma’s side will now *have* to win the final Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) to retain the BGT, which they’ve held since 2017.
The shocking result at the MCG means that India’s hopes of making the World Test Championship (WTC) have taken a serious hit, with their PCT falling to 52.78%. South Africa have already qualified for the WTC Final, and Australia (PCT 61.46%) are within touching distance of making it to the WTC Final for the second cycle running.
However, India’s hopes of making it to the WTC Final are not completely over yet. They can still make it to the summit clash at Lord’s. Here’s how.
Scenarios for India to qualify for the WTC Final
> India will have to win the fifth Test in Sydney to stay alive
Failure to win at SCG will knock India out of the WTC race instantly. Yes, even a draw won’t suffice. If India draw or lose at SCG, then one of Australia or Sri Lanka will progress to the final.
Now that’s out of the way, here’s how India can make it to the final:
a) BGT ends 2-2 and Australia lose 0-2 to Sri Lanka
In this scenario, the three teams’ PCT will be as follows:
India 55.26%, Australia 51.75% and Sri Lanka 53.84%
b) BGT ends 2-2 and Australia lose 0-1 to Sri Lanka
In this scenario, the three teams’ PCT will be as follows:
India 55.26%, Australia 53.50%, Sri Lanka 48.71%
c) BGT ends 2-2 and Australia draw Sri Lanka 0-0
In this scenario, the three teams’ PCT will be as follows:
India 55.26%, Australia 55.26%, Sri Lanka 43.58%
Yes, in the very unlikely scenario that each of the two Australia - Sri Lanka games end in a draw, India and Australia will both have the same PCT. However, should this happen, India will progress to the final.
Why? According to the ICC Playing Conditions for the 2023-25 WTC, if two or more teams have an identical Points Percentage at the end of the group stage, they will be ordered by the higher number of series wins. This is according to clause 16.12.2.
Should both the BGT and SL-AUS end in a draw, then India will have three series wins (ENG (H), BAN (H) and WI (A)) as compared to Australia’s two (PAK (H) and NZ (A)).
So by virtue of being ahead on the tie-breaker, team India will progress to the WTC Final.
What will happen if India lose or draw the Sydney Test?
If India lose the Sydney Test, their PCT will be 50.00%. Australia’s PCT won’t drop below 51.75% even if they get whitewashed away in Sri Lanka. Plus, Sri Lanka’s PCT will jump to 53.84% if they whitewash Australia, meaning they will also surpass India.
If India draw the Sydney Test, their PCT will be 51.75%. In this scenario, Sri Lanka will surpass India’s PCT if they whitewash Australia. In the case of any other result, Australia will surpass India’s PCT. So that’ll be it for Rohit Sharma’s side.
What do Australia need to do to make it to the WTC Final?
Australia will just need to win one of their remaining three Tests (vs IND (H) and SL (A)) to confirm a spot in the WTC Final.
Even three draws in their remaining three Tests will suffice for the Kangaroos.
How can Sri Lanka make it to the WTC Final?
Sri Lanka’s path is as straightforward as it can get: they need India to draw at SCG and then whitewash Australia at home. If they do, their PCT will surpass that of both India and Australia, and they will make it to the final at Lord’s.
But if there is a result at SCG, it will be over for Sri Lanka.
