WTC Cycle enters an interesting phase, where do India and others stand?

There are a total of 69 Tests in the second World Test Championship Cycle. In around a six-month duration, teams have played 24 of these, with South Africa beating the defending champion New Zealand in their den earlier today. 

Eight teams – India vs Sri Lanka, Pakistan vs Australia, West Indies vs England, and South Africa vs Bangladesh – will play each other over the next month by which time we will reach the halfway mark of the cycle. Let us first look at the points table-

There was a tweak in the format from the first cycle. In the first cycle, each series carried equal points (120) but now each Test has equal points (12). To recap the points system, a win gets the side the full 12 points. A draw gets 4 and a tie gets 6.

The two teams – India and New Zealand – who made it to the final in the first editions finished with a PCT of 72.2% and 70% respectively. Considering a 70% PCT a benchmark to be in the hunt for qualification, here is how each side stand on achieving that mark:

New Zealand

The defending champs are in a bind. The biggest reason for them to make the final in the previous cycle were swift whitewashes at home and cancellations of tours away. The former was still an expectation this time but first came the biggest surprise of them all with Bangladesh registering their most famous Test win. South Africa followed it up with a resurgence after a humbling in the first Test.

New Zealand have now dropped two Tests at home. Which is 50% of the Tests they have played. Their away tours include a series in Pakistan (two Tests) and an away tour to England (three Tests). In all, the Kiwis have seven Tests remaining in the cycle. If they win all of them only then will they finish above 70% PCT. Even if we assume that other teams underperform, a loss in one more Test or a couple of draws will mean that New Zealand can kiss the chance to defend the trophy goodbye.

South Africa

South Africa have punched above their weight so far by beating India at home and keeping their streak of not losing a Test series in New Zealand alive. Their home leg will get easier as they host Bangladesh and West Indies but away tours against England and Australia will determine their fortunes in this WTC cycle. For now, a 2-0 win over Bangladesh will push their PCT to 71.43%.

India

India started the WTC campaign on a high with two wins in England in what was perceived as their toughest assignment for the cycle. However, a resurgent South Africa restricted them to only one win in three Tests to somewhat dent the good work done in England.  

Before that, a last-wicket stand by the Kiwis robbed India of crucial eight points in the first of the home Tests. Now with four wins and two draws they have a PCT of 51.85%. A whitewash against Sri Lanka will propel this to 58.33%. With a tough home series against Australia next year and one more Test in England to go, India cannot afford to drop points in the current series. Even overall, they have a breathing room of losing only one more Test to still reach near the 70% mark. Tough times ahead!

Sri Lanka

A PCT of 100% looks excellent but that is a result of them playing only one series so far. That too against West Indies at home. Everything gets tougher from here with away tours to India and New Zealand and home series against Australia and Pakistan. An away tour against Bangladesh will also be testing based on the pitches. As an immediate concern, they need to win a Test in India for the first time ever to ensure their PCT remains above 70%.

Pakistan

As a consensus, Pakistan have the easiest route to the final. Their away legs involve West Indies, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. However, they started on a false note by dropping a Test in the Caribbean. But they soon overcame the hiccup to win the second Test and whitewash Bangladesh later. 

Pakistan now gear themselves for the biggest challenge of the cycle: facing Australia at home. But, given Australia last played away from home in 2019 and in Asia in 2018, the inadequate preparation might work in Pakistan’s favour. Even if the hosts lose one of the three Tests, their PCT will remain above 70% (71.43%), a comfortable mark going by the standing of the last cycle.

Australia

Four wins in the five Ashes Tests, so far so good for the Aussies. But that was never going to be their biggest challenge of the cycle. All their away tours are in Asia starting with a tough one against Pakistan and a tougher one against India next year. For starters, they will have to ensure a result of 1-1 or better in Pakistan to ensure they stay above 70% PCT

West Indies and Bangladesh

The two sides are just above England on the table right now. While Bangladesh sprung a surprise win over New Zealand, neither side is dominant at home (both dropped points against Pakistan) and still have miles to go to be a force away. For the sake of putting it out here, both can still reach the 70% PCT barrier by winning all their remaining Tests or even drawing one. 

England

England’s Test side is in a disarray and it is common knowledge by now. They made things worse by dropping 10 points due to slow over-rate. Not to rub salt into their wounds but even if they manage to win all their remaining 13 Tests in the cycle, their PCT will be 62.88%. Habitual by now to focus on the future over the present, they should start planning for the next cycle already.

Postscript- The scenario can change if tours or Tests are cancelled for whatever reasons. Teams can also drop points due to slow overrate. A factor that denied the Aussies a berth in the final in the last cycle. The rules are stricter in this cycle with a point lost for every over short.

Picture Courtesy: BCCI Twitter