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Follow UsThere is good news and bad news for Australia ahead of the third Test in Brisbane.
The good news is that Josh Hazlewood has recovered and is almost guaranteed to return to the starting XI. The bad news is that Hazlewood’s return probably will force Scott Boland out of the side.
“Hopefully, Josh is back next week. But even then Scotty is unbelievable,” Australia skipper Pat Cummins said after the Adelaide win, strongly hinting that Boland is still only a ‘backup’.
While it’s undeniable that Australia’s ‘big three’ are all world class and probably undroppable, what’s also indisputable is that Boland adds a point of difference to this Australian pace attack. It is no coincidence that Australia are unbeaten in the seven Tests Boland has played at home, with the only ‘non win’ being the rain-affected draw in Sydney in Ashes 2021/22.
After seven Tests, Boland averages 13.54 in Australia, and he played a massive hand in the team’s victory in Adelaide against India, removing the set Shubman Gill in the first innings before opening the floodgates in the second by sending both Yashasvi Jaiswal and Virat Kohli packing.
Boland in Australia is inevitable, and something magical tends to happen every time he gets the Kookaburra ball in his hand.
Considering that, it will be Australia’s loss if he’s forced out of the XI in Brisbane. Certainly, India will breathe a sigh of relief if Boland is dropped, even if it means Hazlewood coming back in.
So with the ‘big three’ all being locks, and with there being zero chance of a batter getting axed, there is only one way in which Australia can fit Boland into the XI for Brisbane - at the expense of Nathan Lyon, who bowled one over in the win in Adelaide.
But is such a move realistic? If yes, will it be beneficial for Australia? And what do the numbers say?
How often have Australia left out Nathan Lyon at home?
Since the start of the 2013 Ashes, Australia have played 58 Tests at home. In that, Lyon has missed…… a grand total of zero matches.
That’s right, Australia simply don’t drop Lyon at home, even on absolute green tops. And Lyon has proven them right on most occasions.
To give an example, in the 2022 Gabba Test against South Africa, arguably the greenest surface witnessed in Australia this century, Lyon returned match figures of 4/31. In the 2018 Perth Test against India, where the visitors picked four seamers, Lyon was the Player of the Match, taking 8 wickets in the match, including a five-fer in the first innings.
So it will be an unprecedented move if the Kangaroos indeed leave out the off-spinner and go with an all-pace attack.
How friendly has the Gabba been to spinners, of late?
At the Test level, since the 2021/22 home summer, Gabba has witnessed roughly 47 overs of spin bowled per Test, the lowest among all venues that have hosted multiple Tests during this period. It also has the highest economy rate (3.5) among all venues for spinners. But spinners have averaged 31 during this period, which is surprisingly the best among all venues.
To paint a better picture, it’s fair we split it as ‘Lyon vs others’. Lyon has bowled 107 overs and has taken 13 wickets at an average of 20.46. Remarkably, every other opposition spinner combined has sent down just 29 overs and has averaged 67.00.
The interesting bit here is that, twice across these last three games, Lyon did not bowl more than 10 overs in the first innings. But he did have a really heavy workload in the second innings of the first Ashes Test in 2021, where he sent down 34 overs.
And in the first innings of the day-night Test against the Windies earlier this year, the offie bowled 28 overs in the first innings of the Test.
So Australia have definitely ‘needed’ Lyon at the Gabba. For Cummins, to use him sparsely in certain games has been a luxury.
Interestingly, in the Sheffield Shield since the start of the 2021/22 season, Gabba is only one of two venues where less than 50 overs of spin have been bowled per Test, on average. But in this period, Gabba has the second-best average for spinners - 32.9.
So what we can derive from the numbers is probably this: pace *will* dominate proceedings but that does not mean you can afford to go into a Brisbane Test without a specialist spinner.
What are the arguments for Australia keeping Boland and playing four pacers?
It’s simple: Boland adds a whole new dimension to Australia’s pace attack and brings something different to the table due to his stature, his release point, his lengths and his lines. The lines he bowls - just outside off-stump - coupled with his ability to get the ball to both straighten and nip back into the right-hander off the seam, makes him a serious threat.
And as mentioned above already, to delve a bit into the intangibles, he just tends to make things happen. It’s happened far too many times now to put it down to ‘chance’.
Additionally, Boland has the wood over many an Indian batter; most of the Indian top-order would definitely prefer not coming up against the Victorian at the Gabba.
All of Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill average less than 20 against Boland; Gill averages 4.3 with three dismissals. Rahul hasn’t been dismissed by Boland in Tests, yet, but he got dismissed by the 35-year-old in the India ‘A’ match in Melbourne, and perished to the right-armer off a no-ball in Adelaide.
Boland essentially has the entire Indian top-order on a string. And for this very reason, the visiting batters would any day prefer facing Lyon over the Victorian. If you look at the numbers as well, Lyon at home against India averages 37.93. This number has risen to 56.45 since the start of the 2020/21 BGT, with Lyon taking just 11 wickets in 10 innings.
What are the arguments against Australia playing four pacers & dropping Lyon?
The biggest risk of picking four specialist seamers is that Australia run the risk of running their seamers into the ground should the pitch flatten out, especially after the first day and a half or so. We saw this happen in Perth, where Lyon had to bowl 39 overs in the second innings after bowling just five in the first.
Now imagine if a similar situation arises in Brisbane and Australia don’t have a specialist spinner to turn to. Not only will it drive their seamers to a breaking point, it will also severely hurt their over rate. And with the World Test Championship (WTC) Final on the line, the last thing Australia will want at this stage is to concede cheap points and miss out on the final like they did three years ago.
The biggest concern, though, will still be not having a spinner to turn to if the pitch eases out. Needless to say, it’s also always preferable to have variety in the attack.
So what’s most likely to happen?
While Australia playing four seamers does seem like an enticing prospect, all evidence points towards the Kangaroos sticking with Lyon and replacing Boland with the returning Hazlewood.
Should that happen, it will be a shame for the Victorian veteran, who has not only not put a foot wrong when he’s played, but has been a genuine match-winner.
But for the time being, he might just be the right man at the wrong time, due to the ‘big three’ being relentless.
It’s worth remembering that Hazlewood, after all, averages 13.35 with the ball this year and was the best Aussie seamer at the Optus Stadium. At the Gabba, if Cummins and Starc can both replicate what they did in Adelaide, then the hosts might just end up not missing Boland at all.
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