Scenarios: Bangladesh in pole position but Nepal have fate in own hands

Three days ago in New York, Bangladesh fluffed a golden opportunity to make it two wins in two and edge closer to Super 8s qualification, but on June 13 (Thursday) in St. Vincent, the Tigers put behind the disappointment of the South Africa loss to take a giant step towards qualifying for the next round. 

Thanks to the resounding victory against Netherlands, Bangladesh now have one foot in the Super 8s. Even a washout would do for them as, in that case, neither Netherlands nor Nepal would be able to catch them. 

Here are qualification scenarios for Group D

Bangladesh

Points taken: 4 

Remaining fixture: vs Nepal (June 16)

Net Run Rate: +0.478

How can they qualify?

> Bangladesh will qualify for the Super 8s with a win over Nepal, notwithstanding the margin of victory.

> Bangladesh will also qualify for the Super 8s if the Nepal clash is washed out. A washout will leave them with 5 points, which cannot be matched or exceeded by both Netherlands and Nepal.

> Bangladesh can also qualify by losing to Nepal. For that, they will need a) South Africa to beat Nepal and b) Netherlands to either lose to Sri Lanka or beat Sri Lanka by a slender margin.

Nepal

Points taken: 1

Remaining fixtures: vs South Africa (June 14) and vs Bangladesh (June 16)

Net Run Rate: -0.539

How can they qualify?

Nepal’s equation is very simple: they will qualify for the Super 8s if they win each of their remaining two matches. The margin of victory doesn’t matter for them. Even two 1-run wins would do for Nepal as it would take them to 5 points, a tally neither Netherlands nor Bangladesh will be able to match. 

Anything less than 4 points from the remaining two games will not suffice for Nepal, however. 

Netherlands 

Points taken: 2

Remaining fixture: vs Sri Lanka (June 16)

Net Run Rate: - 0.408

How can they qualify?

> Netherlands’ fate is no longer in their hands. They can only qualify if Nepal beat Bangladesh in the clash in St. Vincent on June 16. 

> Netherlands will also be knocked out if Nepal win their remaining two games. 

> A washout between Nepal and Bangladesh will knock Netherlands out of the T20WC. Bangladesh will progress in that case, due to having 5 points to their name.

> Even if Nepal beat Bangladesh, Netherlands will have to hammer Sri Lanka to go past Bangladesh’s net run rate of +0.478. The disadvantage for Netherlands here is that both games (NEP vs BAN and NED vs SL) effectively start at the same time on the same day (one hour difference), so they won’t have a pre-fixed margin of victory to target.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka have already been officially eliminated from the 2024 T20 World Cup, following Bangladesh's victory over the Netherlands in St. Vincent. 

If you’ve not downloaded the Cricket.com app yet, you’re missing out — big time. Play Fantasy on Cricket.com NOW! Download the App here.