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Follow Us10 months ago, it looked like South Africa had effectively given up on the World Test Championship (WTC) by sending a ‘C’ team to New Zealand due to it clashing with the SA20.
Fast forward to December, in what’s nothing short of an astonishing turnaround, the Proteas are top of the WTC table and effectively have one foot in the final off the back of whitewashing Sri Lanka.
So, just one win from here will guarantee South Africa a place in the final. We’ll delve into it in detail in a bit.
But this result means that the dash for the final is now a three-horse race, with Sri Lanka effectively eliminated. The Lankans can only get to a maximum PCT of 53.84% from here even if they whitewash Australia 2-0, and that won’t be enough.
Anyway, without further ado, let’s get into the scenarios.
The Contenders
South Africa - 63.33% PCT; Remaining fixtures: 2 vs PAK (home)
Australia - 60.71% PCT; Remaining fixtures: 3 vs IND (home) & 2 vs SL (away)
India - 57.29% PCT; Remaining fixtures: 3 vs AUS (away)
What is the maximum PCT each contender can reach?
South Africa - 69.44%
Australia - 71.05%
India - 64.03%
Scenarios for BGT & South Africa vs Pakistan
a) If SA beat PAK 2-0 & IND win BGT 3-1, then
SA PCT = 69.44%
IND PCT = 60.52%
AUS PCT = 51.96%
If this happens, even if AUS whitewash SL 2-0, their PCT will still be only 57.01%, meaning IND & SA will play the final
b) If SA draw 1-1 vs PAK & IND win BGT 3-1, then
SA PCT = 61.11%
IND PCT = 60.52%
AUS PCT = 51.96%
Again, even if AUS whitewash SL 2-0, their PCT will still be only 57.01%, meaning IND & SA will play the final. So all have SA to do is win one Test against PAK, which will guarantee them the top spot even if IND win BGT 3-1.
c) If SA beat PAK 2-0 & IND win BGT 3-2, then
SA PCT = 69.44%
IND PCT = 58.77%
AUS PCT = 55.88%
However, in this scenario, if AUS whitewash SL 2-0, then their PCT will go to 60.52%, and they’ll surpass IND, meaning AUS & SA will play the final. But if AUS draw 1-1 vs SL, then AUS PCT will be 54.38%, meaning IND & SA will play the final. In this scenario, the numbers of IND & AUS will remain the same even if SA draw 1-1 vs PAK.
d) If SA beat PAK 2-0 or draw 1-1 & BGT ends 2-2, then
SA PCT = 69.44% (if they win 2-0) or 61.11% (if they draw 1-1)
IND PCT = 55.26%
AUS PCT = 57.84%
In this scenario, if AUS draw 1-1 vs SL then their PCT will be 57.01%, which will be enough to take them to the final. But if they get whitewashed 0-2 by SL, then their PCT will fall to 51.75%, meaning IND & SA will play the final.
e) If SA beat PAK 2-0 or draw 1-1 & IND win BGT 2-1 then
SA PCT = 69.44% (if they win 2-0) or 61.11% (if they draw 1-1)
IND PCT = 57.01%
AUS PCT = 53.92%
Here, AUS can still qualify if they whitewash SL 2-0, because then their PCT will jump to 58.77%. However, a 1-1 draw will take their PCT to 53.50%, meaning IND & SA will play the final.
f) If SA beat PAK 2-0 or draw 1-1 & AUS win BGT 3-2 then,
SA PCT = 69.44% (if they win 2-0) or 61.11% (if they draw 1-1)
IND PCT = 53.50%
AUS PCT = 61.76%
In this scenario, AUS will make it to the final even if they get whitewashed 0-2 by SL. So AUS & SA will play the final.
Can India and Australia still play the final?
For this to happen, Pakistan will first have to whitewash South Africa 2-0. Should that happen, South Africa’s PCT will be 52.77%.
Then, India & Australia will play the final if:
> If the BGT ends in a 2-2 draw & AUS avoid whitewash against SL
> If AUS win the BGT 3-2 (result against SL won’t matter in this case)
> If IND win BGT 3-2 and AUS win at least one Test against SL
> If IND win BGT 3-1 and AUS beat SL 2-0
> If IND win BGT 4-1 and AUS beat SL 2-0
What if South Africa lose 1-0 to Pakistan?
If South Africa lose 1-0 to Pakistan, then their PCT will be 55.55%.
That will still give them a decent shout of going through as India will have to win at least three matches in the BGT to take their PCT above 55.55%.
So the bottom line is South Africa are in pole position to make it to the final and have more than one foot in the finale. It will require a miracle for them not tot make it to the final, and for India and Australia to play the final for the second cycle running.
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