QUALIFICATION SCENARIO
Follow UsIt took a super-human effort from Glenn Maxwell to steer Australia to the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup. The right-hander came in to bat in the ninth over when Australia were 49/4. They further slid to 91/7 in the 19th over, chasing 292. Maxwell scored a double hundred off just 128 balls and carried Australia single-handedly to yet another semi-final.
With this win, the top three are sealed. By all means, Australia will lock horns with South Africa in the second semi-final. Both of them have confirmed a spot either as second or third. They can only displace each other in the points table.
Now, only one spot is up for grabs with three teams in the mix. New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan can only reach ten points. The fun part is that none of them are playing against each other, and all three can end up with the exact number of points.
Let's look at what the teams have to do in their remaining encounter to seize that one remaining spot:
New Zealand: 8 points with an NRR of 0.398
Last game against Sri Lanka on 9th November
Among the three teams in the fight, the Kiwis have the best Net Run Rate. However, not by a big margin. The Blackcaps need to win by a healthy margin and extend that NRR.
Even better, if they win against Sri Lanka, a loss for Pakistan against England and Afghanistan against South Africa will fetch them a spot on just points merit.
Pakistan is their biggest threat. To be safe, New Zealand should win by at least a 50-run margin (assuming they score 300) if they bat first and chase the target in and around 42 overs (assume they are chasing 251).
If they lose by bare margins, a loss for Pakistan and Afghanistan is necessary. However, there is a high chance of the match between New Zealand and Sri Lanka ending up in a washout.
There is a thunderstorm forecast on Thursday in Bengaluru, and the match could be curtailed or end up without a result. In this scenario, New Zealand will attain nine points, and a loss for Pakistan and Afghanistan will take them to the semi-finals.
Pakistan: 8 points with an NRR of 0.036
Last game against England on 11th November
Unpredictability and the Pakistan cricket team are directly proportionate to each other. When New Zealand scored 401 against them in their last game, everyone thought it was the end of the road for them. But what happened in the second innings kept them alive to fight another day.
Their last game is against a demoralized England team. More than that, they are playing the penultimate match of the league stage. Hence, Pakistan will be aware of the equation if New Zealand and Afghanistan also win their final game. If both these teams lose or suffer a washout, a win is enough for Pakistan.
In case New Zealand win, then below are the scenarios for Pakistan to surpass the Blackcaps' NRR.
If both teams are defending - batting first
If both are chasing - batting second
If they lose, they would want New Zealand to have suffered a hefty defeat (as they are playing before Pakistan) and a loss for Afghanistan.
Afghanistan: 8 points with an NRR of -0.338
Last game against South Africa on 10th November
The Afghans had a great chance to surpass Pakistan's NRR in their game against Australia when they reduced them to 91/7. But the result went completely on the opposite side. Due to their lackluster fielding, they lost the game from a commanding position.
This loss has put their chances in jeopardy. A win here would have taken them to ten points and a win in their last game against South Africa to 12. Now, they want New Zealand and Pakistan to lose their game if they win against the Proteas.
In terms of NRR, they have a lot to catch up. Hence, the best possible way is to have more points than the other two teams in contention.
