QUALIFICATION SCENARIO
Follow UsThe Super Eights are almost set, with seven teams already qualifying. One spot remains with Bangladesh and the Netherlands in with a shot of occupying the final spot from Group D. However, what do both teams need to do to make it through to the next round? Let's take a look:
Bangladesh
Matches: 3, Won: 2, Lost: 1, Points: 4, NRR:0.478
Remaining match: vs Nepal, St. Vincent – 17th June 2024 at 5 AM IST
Qualification Scenario:
1. Bangladesh must make sure they don’t end up on the losing side as it will strengthen Netherlands chances of Qualification as they play Sri Lanka an hour later at St. Lucia
2. Even if the match gets washed out due to rain. Bangladesh will qualify with 5 points, as the Netherlands can only reach 4 points
3. A win against Nepal will better their NRR over South Africa. But they will still qualify as D2 as per pre-tournament seeding, whereas South Africa will take the D1 spot
Netherlands
Remaining match: vs Sri Lanka, St. Lucia – 17th June 2024 at 6 AM IST
Qualification Scenario:
1. The Netherlands have the slimmest of chances of qualifying to the Super Eights. They will only get into contention if Bangladesh lose to Nepal at St. Vincent, which will probably end before their game against Sri Lanka ends, as the former game starts an hour early.
2. The scenarios of qualification are plenty. But here are a few realistic permutations and combinations:
The average first-inning scores in St. Vincent and St. Lucia are 140 and 161, respectively. Keeping this in mind, the Qualification scenario is calculated.
Suppose the first innings score in Bangladesh vs Nepal is 140 and in Netherlands vs Sri Lanka is 161. The following scenarios can happen:
If Bangladesh lose while chasing
If Bangladesh lose by 15 runs, their NRR will be 0.169. Then, Netherlands must chase 162 by 14.4 overs or must restrict SL to 124 or less if they are defending
If Bangladesh lose by 10 runs, their NRR will be 0.233. Then, Netherlands must chase 162 by 14 overs or must restrict SL to 118 or less
If Bangladesh lose by 5 runs, their NRR will be 0.296. Then, Netherlands must chase 162 by 13.2 overs or must restrict SL to 111 or less
If Bangladesh lose while defending:
If Nepal chase 141 in 15 overs, Bangladesh's NRR will be -0.080. Then, NED must chase 162 by 17.3 overs or must restrict SL within 143 runs
If Nepal chase 141 in 18 overs, Bangladesh's NRR will be 0.183. Then, NED must chase 162 by 14.3 overs or restrict SL within 122 runs
If Nepal chase 141 in 20 overs, Bangladesh's NRR will be 0.347. Then, NED must chase 162 by 12.5 overs or restrict SL within 109 runs
Thus, a lot must the Netherlands' favour in order to make it to the Super Eights of the T20 World Cup 2024.
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