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Follow UsIt’s been 34 years since New Zealand last won a Test series against Australia, and unfortunately, at least on the bowling front, the Blackcaps are not in the strongest of positions to end this drought in the next few weeks.
Kyle Jamieson is out injured, and the Kiwis won’t also have the services of Trent Boult, who is pretty much ‘unofficially’ retired from Test cricket.
Factor in the uncertainty surrounding Matt Henry’s fitness and the waning numbers of Southee, New Zealand are in a pretty precarious position from a bowling point of view, heading into the two-Test series against Australia starting on Thursday (February 29).
Ahead of the first Test, then, we look at some key sub-plots from a bowling perspective for the Blackcaps.
Tim Southee’s recent lack of potency at home a concern
It’s been 14 months since Tim Southee took over as the full-time Test captain of New Zealand, but the 35-year-old hasn’t quite been able to ‘lead by example’ through his performances.
In 10 Tests as captain, Southee averages 32.72 with the ball, which is three more than his overall career average of 29.28. As captain, Southee has also been able to take 4+ wickets in an innings only once — against Sri Lanka in Christchurch a year ago.
In terms of his overall bowling numbers as captain, we can cut Southee some slack, for, after all, four of his last 10 Tests have been played in either Pakistan or Bangladesh. Pacers seldom register appealing numbers in those parts of the world.
However, something that cannot be overlooked is his declining numbers at home.
Across his last seven Tests in New Zealand, Southee averages 36.36, with his strike rate during this period reading 77.0. Among New Zealand pacers who have sent down 50+ overs during this period, only Neil Wagner averages more — but Wagner has a sub-50 SR compared to Southee’s 77.
A major concern has been the New Zealand skipper’s total ineffectiveness with the older ball. Southee can make the new ball talk, but bowling in New Zealand is as much about toiling with the older ball as it is about dominating batters with the brand new red cherry, due to the flat nature of the surfaces.
In that regard, Southee, of late, has been below-par with the older ball. Between overs 35-79 at home (before second new ball) since 2022, Southee has averaged 55.3.
Among all Kiwi speedsters who have bowled 15+ overs with the older ball in this period, Daryl Mitchell is the only pacer who has fared worse.
Southee being ineffective didn’t hurt the Blackcaps against a depleted South African side, but it is unlikely that they’ll get away with the same against a side like Australia.
Will New Zealand miss Wagner? Maybe not
The last time Neil Wagner faced Australia, he proved to be an absolute menace. The Kiwis got embarrassed 0-3 Down Under in 2019/20, but Wagner finished as the second-highest wicket-taker in the series with 17 scalps @ 22.76.
Of course, everyone remembers his battle with Steve Smith in which he relentlessly hounded the right-hander with short balls.
But that was over four years ago.
Wagner then grew older (37 now) and subsequently had a major dip in form, which resulted in him losing his hold in the side as a sure-shot starter.
From 2014 till 2021, in Test cricket, Wagner averaged under 30.00 in every single calendar year, with 2018 (39.28) proving to be the only exception.
However, since 2022, he’s averaged over 32 in three consecutive years, taking just 31 wickets in his last 20 Test innings at an average of 36.22.
This dip in form has not been exclusive to just Test cricket.
In the last three years, Wagner has played 21 first-class matches and has averaged 33.6. It’s a far cry from the numbers he posted between 2018 and 2021, where he took 154 FC wickets @ 25.4 a piece.
Wagner still is very much capable of banging that ‘back of a length’ zone, but the decrease in pace has, of late, enabled batters to negotiate his threat in a more comfortable fashion.
In the second Test against South Africa in Hamilton, the left-armer’s average pace was a mere 126 kph. Compare this to the home series against India in 2020, where his average speed was 131, with him threatening the 140 kph barrier multiple times.
Without question, the Blackaps will miss the sheer fight and heart Wagner brings to the table. However, if recent bowling metrics are evidence to go by, the 37-year-old, in his current avatar, won’t be too big a miss.
READ: If you want to be tough, be tough like Neil Wagner
William O’Rourke’s pace could be the key against the Aussies
Unlike Wagner, one speedster who has no issues with pace is young William O’Rourke, who dazzled on debut a few weeks ago, picking 9 wickets to bowl New Zealand to their first ever series win over South Africa.
O’Rourke’s height and pace will prove to be a handful against any side, but Australia in particular. There’s a big reason why.
Historically, Australia have always been pretty good when it comes to negotiating raw pace, but recently, express pace has troubled their batters — big time.
Since the start of 2022, Australia’s average of 35.2 against pace is the second-best among all sides.
However, in this period, they’ve averaged just 20.4 versus deliveries clocked at over 140 kph, which is the second-worst amongst all Test sides in this period who have faced 45+ balls of express pace. Only Ireland have fared worse.
Josh Tongue, Mark Wood and Shamar Joseph bullying the Aussie batters was no coincidence.
This should encourage the Kiwis. O’Rourke’s average speed in the Hamilton Test against South Africa was 137 kph, but he clocked speeds as high as 145 kph.
Close to 12% of the balls he bowled were over 140 kph. Nearly 30% of the balls were 138 kph or quicker.
If O’Rourke can clock the speeds he did against South Africa and get his radar right, he could end up doing serious damage against the Kangaroos.
The 22-year-old will likely be the Blackcaps’ trump card in the upcoming series.
Huge responsibility on Mitch Santner’s shoulders
There was a time when everyone wondered if Mitch Santner would turn out to be a white-ball specialist, but the left-arm spinner, in recent times, has shown that he is more than capable of being a potent bowler in red-ball cricket.
Santner has taken 12 wickets in his last 2 Tests, which includes four consecutive three-wicket hauls. And he’s done so while choking the batters with his control, evident by his economy rate of 2.43 across the aforementioned games.
But all said and done, the real test lies ahead for Santner. He’s done well against Bangladesh in Bangladesh, and against a depleted South African side at home. Great. But can he actually do it against an Australian side, who will, no doubt, look to take him on and unsettle him?
If he can, there’s little question that the Blackcaps will anoint him as the frontline spinner in home Tests going forward, not least due to the fact that he is also a very capable batter.
But a middling series will once again unquestionably raise doubts over his capabilities in red-ball cricket. It will, if nothing, make people question his ceiling as a bowler in whites.
Santner will have both Rachin Ravindra and Glenn Phillips for support in this series, on the spin front, but it’ll be on him to put his hand up and grind for the side, especially if the wickets prove to be flat.
He has huge responsibilities on his shoulder with Southee struggling for form, Jamieson injured and Wagner retired.
