Qualifications scenario: India, New Zealand in a tight race for semifinals

Many argue that the current format of World Cups is a lottery, as teams in form during the tournament are more likely to do well than pedigreed but out-of-form teams. Not only that, when you have only four games to confirm your spot in the knockouts, you can’t take any of them lightly. 

If you don’t believe me, ask the Indian women. They were rocking in T20I cricket this year, winning 11 out of the 16 games they played. Meanwhile, New Zealand women lost 11 out of 13. However, in their first game of the T20 World Cup in Dubai, the fortunes reversed, and the White Ferns defeated the Women In Blue by 58 runs. 

That not only plummeted India’s net run-rate but also opened up the qualification scenario in Group A, which was already like the group of death. However, things are looking slightly simpler in terms of qualification in Group B, where England and South Africa are looking like the most probable teams to qualify to the semifinals from the group. 

India and New Zealand go neck to neck in Group A

Remaining fixtures:

Australia vs Pakistan, October 11

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka, October 12

India vs Australia, October 13

Pakistan vs New Zealand, October 15

India's two consecutive victories, the second being a huge one, have given the team solid hopes of making the knockouts. With four points in three games and an NRR of +0.576, they are currently second on the table and would need to win their last game against Australia anyhow to give themselves the best chances of qualifying. 

However, if they fail to do so, they’ll have four points in four games, and if New Zealand win both their remaining fixtures (against Pakistan and Sri Lanka), they’ll go on the second spot with six points and make the top four. 

If India wins against Australia and New Zealand manage to win just one, then India will finish in the top two. 

Meanwhile, New Zealand would just look to continue their good work from the India game despite the big loss against Australia and make sure they win both their remaining fixtures. They certainly have an easier route than India to make the semifinals. 

In Australia’s case, they look primed to make the semifinals after dominating both their games in the tournament so far. If they even win either of their remaining fixtures (against Pakistan and India), their +2.524 NRR should carry them through in case of a three-way tie at six points between three teams in the group. 

Pakistan’s path to the top four seems the toughest in this group. Their two remaining games are against Australia and New Zealand, and they’ll be without their skipper and most in-form player, Fatima Sana, in the Australia game on October 11. In case they do manage to win both their remaining games, they would hope that the Australians beat India so that Pakistan and Australia can qualify from Group A. 

Can South Africa keep Windies at bay in Group B?

Remaining fixtures:

Bangladesh vs South Africa, October 12

England vs Scotland, October 13

England vs West Indies, October 15 

West Indies are in a really good position to make the top four after beating Bangladesh by eight wickets, which also gave them an impressive NRR boost. However, they face England in their last remaining game, and they would need to win that anyway to ensure a top-two finish in the group. 

However, South Africa have an advantage in that area as they have already played England, and their last game is against Bangladesh, a much lower-ranked side than the Proteas. Meanwhile, West Indies will face England in the last game of the group, and in case South Africa defeat Bangladesh, they would know exactly what they need to do to reach the knockouts. 

Meanwhile, England’s qualification looks highly likely. Their next game is against Scotland, where they’ll go as heavy favourites. If they win that, they’ll be on six points in three games going into their last encounter. However, their NRR (+0.653) isn’t the best in the group, and it might create complications with a three-way tie with South Africa and West Indies if both sides win their remaining fixtures and they lose theirs. To avoid that, they would have to defeat the Windies in their last game. 

Bangladesh is the fourth team still in contention. The only way for them to make the top four is if they win their last game against South Africa by a gargantuan margin, and hope that England register a dominating victory against the Windies. However, that looks as likely as Sheikh Hasina returning to Bangladesh for Dussehra. 

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