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Follow UsIt is not often that teams lose an ODI after posting 388 on the board. Prior to Saturday, only once in ODI cricket had a team scored over 375 and ended up on the losing side. That was Australia 17 years ago, in the famous 438 clash in Johannesburg.
In Dharamshala against New Zealand, the Aussies came dangerously close to achieving the unwanted feat twice. They eventually survived, but it was a mighty close call.
Typically, when a side fails — or nearly fails — to defend such a mammoth total, you’d point fingers at the bowling. It is virtually impossible for any side to have a ‘good’ bowling performance and fail to defend a 375+ total.
Undeniably, Australia were pretty shaky with the ball today but had the Aussies lost the encounter, neither Starc (0/89 off 9) nor Hazlewood (2/70 off 9) would have been to blame.
Rather, it would have been the fault of Mitchell Marsh, whose momentum-sucking knock batting at No.3 nearly undid all the good work done by the openers, and almost derailed the Kangaroos’ innings.
Moved down to No.3 so that Travis Head could be accommodated, Marsh, in a painful 51-ball stay, played 23 dots en-route a scratchy 36 that featured all of two boundaries.
It is bad enough when you look at the knock in isolation, but added context makes Marsh’s innings look even worse: Marsh walked in with Australia 175/1 in 19.1 overs, with New Zealand well and truly on the ropes. But by the time he exited, the run-rate had come down to 7.27 from 9.21, with him playing 17% of the innings at a strike rate of 70.59.
The Western Australian’s knock did not cost his side on the day but the torturous 51-ball stay made one thing very clear: that it simply won’t be sustainable for Australia to play Mitchell Marsh at No.3 without the move actively hurting the side.
Why Mitchell Marsh does not (and likely will not) work in the middle-order in ODIs
When Australia promoted Marsh to open in ODIs earlier this year (in Warner’s absence), they did so because of his ability to wreak havoc against pace inside the powerplay.
A force of nature against pace, it made complete sense to give Marsh the license against the quicks up top. And the move worked like a charm: heading into Saturday’s clash, Marsh had opened 11 times in ODIs in 2023 and had amassed 554 runs at an average of 55.4, smoking runs at a strike rate of 113.8.
And boy he tore into the pacers: he scored 352 runs against the quicks at a SR of 130.4, smashing 24 sixes. 226 of these 352 runs came inside the powerplay.
Here’s what Australia moving Marsh to No.3 has done: it’s taken away two things that unlocked him: one, the luxury of the powerplay and two, the convenience of starting the innings off against pace.
This is a major issue, for Marsh is a highly one-dimensional pace hitter that’s not really adept at attacking spin.
Overall in his ODI career, Marsh strikes at 108.39 vs pace as compared to 78.04 vs spin. Marsh being an exclusive pace hitter is also reflected in his overall T20 numbers, with his strike rate against the tweakers being just 112.44 as compared to nearly 145 vs the quicks.
It is one thing being unable to attack spin, but when it comes to Marsh, there lies a way bigger problem — his inability to rotate strike against the slower bowlers.
On Saturday, the 32-year-old faced 41 balls of spin and played 20 dots. Against the part-time off-spin of Glenn Phillips, supposed to be a ‘positive’ matchup for him, Marsh batted at a flabbergasting strike rate of 43.5, scoring 10 runs off 23 balls whilst playing 13 dots.
Such was the excruciating pace at which Marsh batted that it resulted in Steve Smith, of all people, holing out to mid-off trying to up the ante.
Here’s the thing, though: what happened in Dharamshala today was far from a one off. A week ago in Bengaluru, Marsh struck a sizzling ton against Pakistan but there, too, the right-hander endured similar struggles against spin.
There he scored 40 runs against the tweakers but it came at a SR of just 74.1. He played 34 dots against spin in total, 31 of them coming in the 11-40 phase. And Iftikhar Ahmed proved to be the Phillips of that game, with Marsh scoring 9 runs off 21 balls against the off-spinner.
As it stands, among batters who have faced 100+ balls of spin in the middle-overs in this World Cup, Marsh’s dot-ball percentage of 54.90% is the second worst, only behind Hashmatullah Shahidi. His strike rate of 64.9 against the tweakers, in this phase, is once again the second-worst.
But Marsh’s struggles against spin in the middle-overs is not something that’s come out of the blue. It’s been well established.
Overall, in his ODI career, the 32-year-old has a SR of just 74.3 against spinners in the 11-40 phase.
Since 2017, among top 10 teams in ODIs, he is one of 17 batters (in a list of 64 players who have faced 500+ balls of spin in the middle-overs) who have a dot ball percentage of over 50% in the 11-40 phase against spin.
Marsh’s struggles against spin did not hurt Australia whilst he was opening the batting, for he made use of the powerplay and started off quickly against pacers, but it’s a huge issue now that he’s been relegated to the No.3 spot.
The No.3 slot, in general, requires a batter that’s adept versus both pace and spin — especially the latter — and has the ability to turn over strike regularly against the slower bowlers but Marsh is not that player.
It means that, unless he walks in to bat very early on the fall of a quick wicket, he’ll prove to be a frustrating presence. For teams *will* attack him with spin up-front outside the field restrictions, and that will result in Marsh getting bogged down like he did against the Kiwis on Saturday.
Australia wouldn’t want that. They would ideally want the scoreboard to keep ticking, the runs to keep flowing on the back of a strong opening stand.
Marsh will occasionally, of course, tee off against the spinners from the get go, and there will also be days in which he bats out the spinners and tears into the pacers.
However, such days will prove to be the exception rather than the norm. Both the Pakistan and New Zealand encounters have shown us that the norm will be Marsh struggling to find his rhythm against spinners during the middle-overs.
How can Australia overcome the Marsh conundrum?
Moving Marsh up the order again is no longer an option after what Head did on Saturday. Head, either way, is the superior opener.
However, the alternative is to instead move Marsh down the order and use him as a finisher.
Rotating against spin is not something that comes naturally to Marsh but he wouldn’t be needed to do that batting at No.6 or No.7. For it’s pace that he’ll be predominantly facing, and that’s a bowling type he’s very comfortable with. Generally, when top-order batters are moved down the order you worry about their ability to clear the ropes but that’s not a concern when it comes to Marsh.
He also has prior experience batting down the order, having batted 35 times at No.6 and No.7 in ODIs. And in those innings he managed to strike at 146 against pace in the death overs (41-50 phase).
Marsh moving down the order will also mean Steve Smith moving back to No.3, without question his best position. It’ll then mean Josh Inglis moving to No.4 but that’s not a bad thing for Australia, considering Inglis has plenty of experience batting at #4 in the shortest format. It’s a position that will suit Inglis too, considering he is a very proactive player.
Assuming Marnus Labuschagne does not make the full strength XI, it’ll then mean Australia needing to use Maxwell / Marsh / Stoinis dynamically based on the match situation.
Having Marsh down the order will also ease some pressure off Maxwell, who at the moment is carrying Australia at the back end of the innings. It will also enable Cummins to send Maxwell in early in certain games, to counter the spin choke.
Only time will tell whether Australia will be willing to make this — rather drastic — change but Saturday’s encounter showed the Kangaroos that there’s a desperate need for a reshuffle in the middle-order. They might have got away with it against the Blackcaps but neglecting the glaring issue could end up costing them dearly in the knockouts.
