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Follow UsOn January 1, 2021, a fortnight before England’s two-Test series against Sri Lanka, Joe Root was the 31st highest run-getter in Test cricket, with 7,823 runs to his name.
He only had 17 Test hundreds, six fewer than Kane Williamson, nine fewer than Steve Smith, and 10 fewer than Virat Kohli.
Root’s inability to get to the three-figure mark had become a meme by this point: he had only converted four of his previous 23 fifty-plus scores into tons, and many started to wonder if he even was in the same league as the other three Fab Four members.
Fast forward to August 2021, there are only six men ahead of Root in the all-time run-scoring list in Tests. He has 32 Test hundreds, which is the same as Smith and Williamson and three more than Kohli, who only three years ago had scored 10 hundreds more than the Yorkshireman.
There are two major reasons for this absurd rise. Well, three, actually.
Firstly, for close to four years now, Root has managed to maintain utterly ridiculous run-scoring form.
Since the start of 2021, the right-hander has racked up 4,204 runs at an average of 54.59. He’s averaged over 45.00 in every single calendar year since 2021, with the average in both 2021 and 2023 remarkably crossing 60.00.
Secondly, and more pertinently, his conversion rate has gone through the roof. Till the end of 2020, had only converted 17 out of 66 fifty-plus scores into tons. That’s a conversion rate of 25.75%, which, quite frankly, is atrocious.
Since 2021, however, this conversion rate has improved to a stupendous 51.72%.
Converting that plethora of 50-plus scores into big tons has helped him climb the ladder really quickly.
Despite all this, Root's biggest reason for going from #31 to #7 in the all-time run-scoring list is the volume of Test cricket England play.
Since 2021, England have played 46 Tests, which is at least 11 more than any other team. The Three Lions, in the last three and a half years, nearly played twice as many Tests as the likes of Sri Lanka, South Africa, New Zealand and Pakistan.
So, a combination of Root’s (massively) improved conversion rate, his form, his very good track record when it comes to injuries, his age — at 33, he is still relatively young — and the amount of Test cricket England play is what has prompted the world to start talking about the prospect of the right-hander doing the impossible, which is going past Sachin Tendulkar’s run tally in Tests.
He definitely can do it, but realistically, when can Root go past Sachin? How long does he need to play? That’s what we’re here to look at.
How long will it take for Root to go past Sachin?
If you’re Joe Root, 3,895 is the magic number you’re looking at.
Root (12,027) is only 1,351 runs away from the second batter in the all-time list, Ponting (13,378) — and he should get there comfortably — but going past Sachin will NOT be easy, though 3,895 does look attainable.
So, let us find out how long it will take Root to get those 3,895 runs and overtake Sachin.
In the scenario that he maintains his current average, which is 50.11 runs per innings, Root will roughly need 78 innings to go past Sachin.
So far in his Test career, since his first full year in 2013, Root has played, on average, 21.6 innings per year. For convenience’s sake, we’ll round that off to 22.
Assuming this number gets maintained for the next half a decade as well, Root will need 3.5 years to go past Sachin. England are scheduled to play 30 Tests as per the current Future Tour Programs (FTP) till February 2027, so you can expect this average (number of innings) to remain constant.
This means January 2028 is when Root will go past Sachin if he maintains his current average of 50.11 runs per inning.
The caveat here is that he will be 37 by January 2028, and it is no secret that the older you get, the more vulnerable you will be to form dips.
It might, hence, not be realistic for Root to maintain the same output for the next three and a half years. Not to mention, there is also a tour to Australia in this period, and that is by far his least favourite country to bat in, evident by his average of 35.68 Down Under.
So Root scoring, on average, 50.11 runs per innings for the next 3.5 years seems unlikely.
What if his output dips? Say, his average runs per innings dip to about 42 runs per innings from the start of 2026 onwards?
Which is basically Root averaging 50 runs per innings for the next 30 innings, and then 42 after that?
This means he will knock off 1,500 out of the remaining 3,895 runs (to go past Sachin) in 30 innings, leaving him with 2,395 runs more to get. Assuming he scores 42 runs per innings from this point onwards, he will need 57 more innings to go past Sachin.
This means he will take 87 more innings to overtake Sachin, which will be close to four or four and a half years. This will be either late 2028 or early 2029, by which point Root will be 38.
But what if Root surprises everyone and maintains his ridiculous purple patch for the next three or so years as well? Since 2021, the 33-year-old has been averaging 54.59 runs per innings.
What if he keeps scoring 54.59 runs per innings for the next three to four years?
In that scenario, Root will need about 72 innings to go past Sachin, which is just over three years. Meaning he will become the highest run-getter in Test history by September or October 2027. He will be 36 by then (close to turning 37).
Longevity might give Sachin the edge over Root
When Sachin was the age Root is currently (33 years and 231 days), he had three more tons than the Englishman but 1,558 fewer runs.
So, that way, Root is very much on track to finish as the highest run-getter in Test history.
But here is where Sachin’s longevity comes into play. Despite debuting all the way back in 1989, Sachin played Test cricket till 2013, at the age of 40 (almost 41).
Root, without question, can get the record if he wants it, but does he have it in him to:
a) stay motivated and play till at least the age of 37-38 and
b) play at an extremely high level for the next three years with minimal dips in form?
Perhaps yes, but it is worth remembering a similar case. Root’s predecessor, Sir Alastair Cook, was just 33 years and 13 days old when he breached the 12,000-run mark. He was touted to surpass Sachin by the time he retired.
However, Cook retired just a few months after turning 33, finishing with 12,472 runs to his name.
Root, for all we know, might not call time on his career suddenly like Cook did, but never underestimate the power of burnout and mental exhaustion.
Time, more than anything, is going to be Root’s biggest enemy.
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