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Follow UsAuction dynamics is an often-used term during IPL auctions. Missed opportunities, bad buys, inflated prices - you name it. And, more often than not, teams tend to hide behind this.
But, what exactly are these auction dynamics? And how are IPL teams so massively impacted by it?
Let’s look at a few examples from the last mega auction to try and understand this phenomenon.
First up, Mumbai Indians.
One of Mumbai's weaknesses, amongst others, in the last cycle was the lack of a spin attack. The addition of Piyush Chawla in 2023 worked out far better than they would have imagined, but it still remained a concern for them.
Now, what if we were to tell you that RCB's going all out for Wanindu Hasaranga in the 2022 mega auction contributed to MI not having a strong enough spin attack?
When Bangalore made the 10.75 Cr bid for Hasaranga, PBKS were at the receiving end. The unsuccessful purchase forced PBKS to go after Krunal Pandya and Washington Sundar in the same set to get their hands on a spin-bowling all-rounder.
Unable to get any, PBKS had their eyes set on one other domestic spinner in the spin bowlers’ set (Set 6) - Rahul Chahar. And when Punjab managed to secure Rahul's services for 5.25 Cr, RR ended up being the losing bidder.
With RR now eager to get in a domestic wrist-spinner, they did not hesitate while raising the paddle for the spinner who came right after, Yuzvendra Chahal.
Given the auction's zero-sum nature, RR getting Chahal meant someone losing it.
And that someone was Mumbai Indians.
Chahal was the second-last spinner in the set, so MI had few other options and ended up having to make do with Murugan Ashwin and Mayank Markande as their primary spinners.
Such knock-on effects are very common in an auction but are not visible to us. The reason is that the above player movements happened over a span of four to five hours. So, tracking all of that is a tedious task.
For the second example, let’s look at Romario Shepherd.
It’s only in 2024 that Shepherd has finally shown glimpses of what he can do at the highest level.
So, did he warrant such a hefty price tag (7.75 Cr) three seasons ago?
Well, yes and no.
Despite being one of the most successful sides in the last auction cycle, RR continuously struggled to plug the #7 gap throughout the 3 years. As with most sides, these issues can be traced back to the mega auction.
The first question would be, "Why didn't RR go for a quality all-rounder during the mega auction?"
It is a fair argument considering the number of options that were up for grabs. Except, there's a difference between going for one and actually getting one - a lesson that RR learned the hard way.
On day one, Rajasthan were the losing bidder for Deepak Chahar and Jason Holder, two options that could've potentially helped them fill that hole. Both options going beyond their budget did not help their cause.
They tried to correct this on day two, when they placed bids for Marco Jansen, Odean Smith, and Tim David. However, they bowed out far before the market price of these players.
It was a similar story for Sunrisers Hyderabad, who so far had been the losing bidder for Harshal Patel, Mitchell Marsh, Odean Smith, and Jofra Archer.
This meant that by the time player #180 (Romario Shepherd) came in, RR and SRH were both keen on ensuring that they had a first XI option in that position. And they left no stone unturned in trying to recruit Romario Shepherd.
But, SRH's bigger purse meant that they finally came out on top. This desperation worked in Shepherd's favor as he went home with a healthy paycheck of 7.75 Cr.
One might argue that he might be overvalued, even more so when you consider what some of the other proven options went for, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles in an IPL auction. Different teams rate the same skill sets differently. This is why players who offer a rare package often end up making more than someone who is more one-dimensional in their offerings.
Further, most of what we see at the auction is classic survivorship bias at play, with more attention being given to the players recruited than the ones that slipped through.
For instance, Mumbai fans were thrilled with MI’s foresight to go after Jofra Archer keeping the long term in mind. But, if we’re to go by how MI’s auction panned, it’s hard to believe that this was a pre-planned strategy.
Before the English pacer, they were the losing bidders for no less than six pacers including Trent Boult, Josh Hazlewood, Mark Wood, Kartik Tyagi, Marco Jansen, and Navdeep Saini, apart from placing bids for Jason Holder, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, and Avesh Khan. Barring maybe Kartik or Navdeep, it’d have been very surprising if they would’ve still placed an 8 Cr bid for Archer had they gotten any of the above players.
There were other such instances on display, when DC first lost out on Shikhar Dhawan, and later Faf du Plessis and Quinton de Kock in succession, before they got third time lucky with David Warner.
Similarly, SRH were the losing bidder thrice in a row when they couldn’t pouch any of Ambati Rayudu, Ishan Kishan, or Jonny Bairstow. They finally went all in on Nicholas Pooran to fill in that void.
Most analyses would, rightly, only talk about the eventual buy and not the players they missed out on. However, it is important to understand the flow of bids that eventually led to the said buy.
Of course, the pattern will not always be so obvious, and TV viewers like us will not always understand a team's strategy. There may be cases where a team might skip a useful option now to save up some money to buy a player of a different suit who will come in much later.
It is complexities like these that make the IPL auction what it is. Unlike most other tournaments, teams really have to dive deep and think hard before buying a player.
So, come November 24 and November 25, let’s try not to be so harsh on our favorite teams.
