How do the World Cup teams go about their innings construction?

This article is a continuation of the 'Trend Analysis: What Makes India a Superior Batting Unit?' article. It will focus on the influential factors when teams bat for at least 48 overs and examine how teams approach an ODI innings.

We examined how the first-innings score correlates with two crucial factors: the scoring rate and the fall of wickets. As the game progressed, we observed that the correlation between the first-innings score and the scoring rate became stronger. This indicates that the run rate during the initial phase has a limited impact on the final score.

However, the correlation between the first-innings score and the fall of wickets weakened as the innings progressed. This suggests that when wickets fall in the early stages of the game, it tends to have a more pronounced effect on the final score. 

NOTE: Correlation measures the relationship between two variables. In a positive correlation, both variables (e.g., scoring rate and innings 1 score) tend to increase together, with a coefficient between 0 and 1 indicating the strength of this positive relationship. Conversely, a negative correlation occurs when one variable (e.g., innings 1 score) tends to decrease as the other (e.g., fall of wickets) increases, with a coefficient between 0 and -1 representing the strength of this negative relationship.

Since losing wickets early in a match can significantly impact a team's overall score, we examined the number of deliveries faced by players in different batting positions during matches. We conducted this analysis for occasions when a team scored 300 runs or more compared to times when they fell short of that mark.

When a team's final score reached 300 or more, the players in the top order (1-3) faced approximately 175 deliveries in the first innings. This is nearly twice the number of deliveries (91) faced by the top order when the team's total score remained below 300 runs. These patterns underscore the crucial role that top-order batsmen play in leading the team's batting effort and laying the foundation for a competitive total that puts the team in a strong position.

This table compares the performance of top-order batters in cricket matches when their team's total score is less than 300 and when it's 300 or more. The listed teams are participants in the 2023 Cricket World Cup.

The team that seems to be less dependent on their top-order batters is England. In matches where their team's total is less than 300, the median number of balls played by their top-order batters is 97, and the median number of runs scored is 75.5. 

However, when their team's total is 300 or greater, the median number of balls played by their top-order batters increases to 164, and the median number of runs scored is 156.6. This suggests that England's middle and lower-order batsmen contribute significantly more to the team's runs in high-scoring matches than in matches where the team's total is below 300.

New Zealand follow a similar trend when their team's total is 300 or greater. New Zealand and England are the only teams whose top-order batters face fewer balls when their team's total is 300 or greater. For New Zealand, the median number of balls played is 165, resulting in a median run score of 173.5 and a median team total run of 320.

South Africa achieves the highest team total runs when their score is 300 or greater, with a median of 334. This indicates they have the firepower to post a big total once the top order is set - given their potent middle order, which possibly is the best in the tournament. 

Teams like India, Australia, and Pakistan exhibit a relatively higher number of balls faced by their top-order batters when they score 300 or more. When their team's total falls short of 300, these three teams rely on their top-order batsmen to face a median number of balls ranging from 131 to 155, highlighting their importance in stabilising the innings. 

Similarly, when their team's total reaches or exceeds 300, the top-order batters for India, Pakistan, and Australia continue to play a pivotal role, facing a median number of balls ranging from 210 to 220.5. This consistent emphasis on their top-order batting underscores its significance in contributing to the team's overall batting performance, regardless of whether the team's target is below or above the 300-run mark.