PRE MATCH ANALYSIS
Follow UsA fortnight ago, all problems seemed to be in the English camp. Bowler after bowler falling to injuries, batsmen bullied, all-rounders ineffective. Their captain was in the form of his life but his tactics gave an impression of him dealing with velvet gloves and not iron fists.
When Virat Kohli won the toss at Headingley – his first in England in nine attempts – even the luck seemed to have turned towards India. That is when the winds of change blew and the jitters started to change camp in the first session and shifted completely in three and a half days to follow.
India’s first innings lasted for 40.4 overs. The openers had a rare failure, runs continued to elude the middle-order, the pressure was too big for the lower-order to handle. Even Mohammed Shami and Jasprit Bumrah, India’s heroes at Lord’s, fell to first-ball ducks. The last six wickets added 22 runs in the first innings and 41 in the second.
On the other hand, there was a pause in England’s opening woes with a century stand between the new opening pair. Root remained indefatigable against India this year and Dawid Malan looked a fresh addition on quality and quantity. With the ball, James Anderson continued to traumatize with the new-ball, Ollie Robinson persisted with hitting the right lengths and Craig Overton was like Robinson’s twin bowling from the other end. The velvet gloves were off, England struck with iron fists through and through.
To add to the result at Headingley, England’s most-effective bowler at home lately and their second-preferred all-rounder after Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes, is now back after an injury layoff. If there are any anxieties, they are surely in India’s camp as of now.
Why does Chris Woakes matter?
The only reason why Woakes isn’t a bigger deal in world cricket is because James Anderson is still around. Woakes is military medium in pace, he doesn’t celebrate his wickets with over the top gusto nor does he puts the umpire under pressure while appealing. Thus his impact gets lost among the other more limelight-hogging bowlers.
On statistics, in Tests at home since 2018, no other English bowler has taken wickets at a better rate or cheaper than Woakes. Not to mention an average with the bat of nearly 30 in this period with two match-winning knocks of 137* and 84*.
Sam Curran has been off-colour in the three Tests. Not only does this reflect in his numbers (three wickets at 79.3) but the overall drop in quality whenever he comes on. Thus, Woakes is sure to be England’s preferred number eight at the Oval.
England already had two Robinsons operating in the last Test. With Woakes back, they can now have two Anderson’s in the side to ensure no let off from any end for India.
All eyes on India’s combination
India’s middle-order has been the least of their worries even on the most dismal away tours in the last decade or so. But, when everything else seems to have largely fallen in place, India’s engine room has had an ill-timed breakdown. India’s batsmen at three, four, five and six have collectively averaged 23.4 in this series so far. This is the second-worst since the start of the year 2009, after averaging 19.2 across two Tests in New Zealand in 2020.
Things appear solemn when on the other side of the spectrum, England’s mainstay is in the form of his life, hunting a 15-year-old record of most Test runs in a calendar year. Not only has he outscored India’s batsmen from three to six in this series combined, if Root against India was a separate player, he would have been the second-highest run-getter this year.
This might lead the Indian management to think about adding an extra batsman, but Virat Kohli has ruled out the possibility whenever presented with the question. “If you don’t have the ability or the resources to take 20 wickets going into a Test matches, then you are already playing for only two results. And that is not how we play.” Kohli has maintained his stance of playing five bowlers – four pacers and a spinner to be precise – since the first Test.
Also read: Step aside selection headache, India have a combination conundrum
India have the option of dropping Ajinkya Rahane, who has averaged 21.06 in 17 innings this year. But, playing Hanuma Vihari – who has not played an innings of notice in SENA yet – or Suryakumar Yadav – yet to debut in Tests – will be a gamble in the must-win match.
Hence, India are pretty much likely to go in with five bowlers and hope their middle-order stands up in the hour of need. The variation can be on whether to play one spinner or two. If India decides to play two, Ishant Sharma is the likeliest candidate to miss out. His spot will be under the scanner even if India plays four seamers.
Then there is the question of workload. Bumrah, Shami and Mohammed Siraj have played all three Tests so far and all have nearly 100 overs each. With only a three-day gap between the fourth and the fifth Test, India will have to assess if either of them needs to break. While Shardul Thakur is fit to play again, India have added Prasidh Krishna to the squad as well. It is the discussion that England will have for Anderson and Robinson themselves. But they still have Overton and Woakes fresh as a daisy.
The current Indian team has developed a habit of coming back from their backs to the wall. “If what happens in one game guarantees you the same thing the next game, we should have smashed England again," Kohli said after the last Test. "We like to be in this situation where people start coming at us with doubts and start questioning our ability. That is the situation we love best.”
But unlike the ongoing tour, India have faced aberrations early in the series for them to have the time to build momentum. From that perspective, the current challenge might be tougher than the earlier ones. However, with this Indian side, the jitters can change camps once again in a session or two.
Probable XIs
England
As mentioned above, Woakes will replace Curran in all likelihood. Jos Buttler has taken a leave as he and his wife await the birth of their second child. England have added Sam Billings to the team but they can opt for Ollie Pope too and have Jonny Bairstow donning the gloves.
Rory Burns, Haseeb Hameed, Dawid Malan, Joe Root (c), Jonny Bairstow, Sam Billings/Ollie Pope, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Craig Overton, Ollie Robinson, James Anderson.
India
Oval’s spin-friendly reputation implies that Ravichandran Ashwin will play, but bowling coach Bharath Arun, in the press conference, revealed that the management will only take a decision on the morning of the Test. Arun also confirmed that Jadeja is 100% fit, implying that the all-rounder will all but feature in the fourth Test. Therefore, as it was at Trent Bridge, it could very well be a toss-up between Ashwin and Thakur, given Arun also confirmed that the inclusion of Prasidh was nothing more than a mere precaution.
Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rishabh Pant (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin/ Shardul Thakur, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.
