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Qualification scenarios: How many defeats can CSK afford from here?

article_imageQUALIFICATION SCENARIOS
Last updated on 10 May 2024 | 10:20 PM
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Qualification scenarios: How many defeats can CSK afford from here?

Gujarat Titans are still in the race for the playoffs by the skin of their teeth

The plot thickens. Gujarat Titans, after three consecutive defeats, have toppled Chennai Super Kings, who continue to lose every alternate game. Chennai were one of the favorites to reach the playoffs in this middle muddle on the points table. However, they lost to the tenth team on the points table before this clash by 35 runs. 

It is a one-sided defeat but once Shubman Gill and Sai Sudharsan posted a 210-run opening stand on Friday (May 10), CSK were chasing the eight-ball. They did well to pull the margin down, which seemed like a pretty heavy defeat at one stage. 

CSK’s defeat is good news for the other sides. With Sunrisers Hyderabad reaching 14 points in 12 matches, Chennai getting stuck at 12 in 12 reduces the pressure from other teams still in the hunt for the playoffs. To start with, it keeps Gujarat Titans in the race even though they have minimal chances. Royal Challengers Bangalore, another team that can get to 14 points, would be happy with this outcome. Delhi Capitals and Lucknow Super Giants are two sides that can still get to 16 points, but they need to win both of their games. CSK’s defeat boosts their chances further. Kolkata Knight Riders and Rajasthan Royals are already at 16 points and should qualify with all certainty.

CSK qualification scenario breakdown

Points accumulated: 12

Remaining fixtures: RR (H), RCB (A)

Maximum points they can get to: 16

Current Net Run Rate: +0.491 (second-best in the competition)

Despite the 35-run defeat, CSK still have the second-best net run rate in the season. That is what keeps them afloat. If they win both their remaining fixtures, CSK will shoot themselves to 16 points and may even have a crack at the top two finish, depending on other results. 

If they win only one of these two fixtures, they will depend on their net run rate to see them through with four other teams who are strong contenders to reach the 14-point mark. Among the lot, RCB will worry them the most, whose net run rate (+0.217) is closest to CSK. Interestingly, both teams play their final league game against each other on May 18. That could turn out to be a knockout game (with eyes on the margin of defeat) if CSK lose to RR and RCB defeat DC in their upcoming match. CSK cannot afford to lose both games. 

Can CSK finish in the top two?

Yes, CSK can still reach 16 and have a better run rate than RR. If RR lose all their remaining three games, SRH drop one then KKR will finish at top to be followed by CSK. But of course, one big margin of result can ruin the whole situation. 

GT qualification scenario breakdown

Points accumulated: 10

Remaining fixtures: KKR (H), SRH (A)

Maximum points they can get to: 14

Current Net Run Rate: -1.063 (the worst in the competition)

GT can reach 14 points, but their net run rate is their biggest problem. First, to reach the bare minimum of 14 points, they need to beat tournament contenders like KKR and SRH by a big margin. 

If they manage to pull that off, GT will need a lot of results to go in their way. First and foremost, they are not getting into the top two

They need a scenario where there is room for one team to qualify with 14 points. Hence, only one among SRH, CSK, DC and LSG should get to the 16-point mark. 

For instance, if SRH reach 16, which they should, knowing they have two games left, GT need CSK to lose both their games. And since GT can't afford RCB to reach 14 points, this is how the equation becomes for them in this scenario: 

RCB beat DC but lose to CSK

DC lose to RCB but beat LSG

LSG beat MI but lose to DC

CSK lose both games

This way RCB, DC and LSG will be stuck at 14 points and CSK remain at 12. But surpassing their NRR remains another hurdle for the 2022 champions.

Thus, Gujarat is one side that will be interested in the remaining fixtures of all the other nine teams in the competition. In any case, GT will have to surpass the NRR of LSG and DC which will depend on the results of these two sides as well. 

Overall, GT are still in the race by the skin of their teeth and their poor net run rate can still make them the next team to be eliminated after Mumbai Indians and Punjab Kings.

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