Could India miss out on T20 World Cup 2024 semi-final spot?

The Group 1 side of the Super 8s was expected to be a straightforward affair, with India and Australia qualifying for the semis. But, Afghanistan, who were in the shadows of the two World Cup giants, have once again stepped up on the global stage and notched an inspiring win against Australia in St Vincent, setting up the final two games of Group 1 in Super 8s to be crucial contests.

How has Afghanistan's victory over Australia changed the tides for India’s and Australia’s qualification chances? Should India fear getting knocked out? Are Australia on the cusp of getting knocked out? Can Bangladesh still hope?

Let’s dive right in!

Games Remaining in Group 1 – Super 8s

India vs Australia, St. Lucia – June 24th 2024, 8.00 PM IST

Afghanistan vs Bangladesh, St Vincent – June 25th 2024, 6.00 AM IST

Can India be knocked out?

India have the least chance of getting knocked out among the four teams. With a positive NRR of 2.425, a win against Australia will confirm their spot in the semis. They will only get knocked out if…

- Australia beat India by 35-40 runs or chase the target in 14-16 overs, which would take Australia's NRR over India

- Afghanistan beat Bangladesh by a massive margin to take their NRR above India

Australia in a do-or-die situation

After losing to Afghanistan by a 21-run margin, Australia's NRR took a big hit, dropping from 2.47 to 0.22. This has put them under pressure heading into the final Super 8s game against India in St. Lucia. 

In order to qualify for the semis, the following results must happen for Australia

- Australia must beat India with a good margin in order to boost their NRR as much as possible. If they chase the target in 14-16 overs or win by 35-40 runs, they can even overtake India in NRR

- Hope Afghanistan lose against Bangladesh or even if they win, the margin of victory should be a very slender one

If Australia lose against India, they can still qualify if…

- Bangladesh win against Afghanistan in St Vincent. But the margin of victory should not be massive, so that Bangladesh's NRR does not go past Australia's

Afghanistan in with a shout

Afghanistan’s inspiring win against Australia has kept them in the semis race and also has given them the luxury of potentially deciding the fate of both Australia and India. 

Since Afghanistan are playing Bangladesh after India play Australia, their mathematical equation for qualification will only be set after the India-Australia match, based on the NRR of the losing team of that game.

If Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh by a small margin, they can qualify only if Australia lose against India by a massive margin of 50-60 runs or India chase down their target in 14-15 overs.

Bangladesh have a very slim chance of qualification

Bangladesh still are in the hunt. But their chance is as similar to Lucknow's qualification chances during the recent IPL, which was mathematically possible but realistically impossible

- With a horrible NRR of – 2.489, Bangladesh's chances of qualifications open up only if India hammer Australia by a massive margin like 80-90 runs

- Even if India win by such a margin against Australia, then Bangladesh must beat Afghanistan by 40-50 runs or chase the target in 16-17 overs to take their NRR above Afghanistan and Australia

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