Have KKR & RR sealed a top two finish in IPL 2024?

After the big 98-run win against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have moved to the top of the points table, pushing down Rajasthan Royals (RR) to the second spot for the first time in 30 days. Both teams now have 16 points, but KKR's superior Net run-rate (NRR) of 1.453 meant that they top the table, displacing RR, who have an NRR of 0.622 but have one game in hand.

Amongst the other eight teams, only Chennai Super Kings (CSK), Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have a chance to reach 18 or more points. Teams finishing with 18 points still don’t have a 100% chance of finishing in the top two, as both KKR and RR have a chance of having 22 points and 24 points, respectively, in their bag before they both face each other in the 70th and final league game of IPL 2024 on May 19 to decide the table-toppers.

Delhi Capitals (DC) can reach a maximum of 16 points, which will provide a slim chance of qualification, let alone finishing in the top two due to their negative NRR. With the top two spots being the best place to finish as the loser of Qualifier 1 will get a second chance to qualify for the final in Qualifier 2, do other teams have a chance to reach the top 2, pushing down KKR and RR?

Let's deep dive!

Kolkata Knight Riders – Played: 11, Won: 8, Lost: 3, Points: 16, NRR: 1.453

Upcoming games: vs MI (H), vs GT (A), vs RR (A)

-    KKR will end up with 22 points if they win the remaining three games

-    If they win their next two games and RR win two of their next three games, both teams will be at 20 points and will fight out in Guwahati on May 19 for the top spot with 22 points

-    If they win only one of their remaining three games, they must expect CSK and LSG to lose at least one and SRH to lose at least two of their remaining games to stay in the top two

-    If they lose their next two and RR also lose their next three games, both the teams will face off in Guwahati in the last league game on May 19 to decide who will finish with 18 points

Rajasthan Royals – Played: 10, Won: 8, Lost: 2, Points: 16, NRR:0.622

Upcoming games: vs DC (A), vs CSK (A), vs PBKS (H), vs KKR (H)

-    Winning all four games will take RR to 24 points, which no other team can reach, thus sealing the top spot

-    If they win at least two out of their remaining three games, they will reach 20 points before their final league game against KKR. They will have a high chance of qualifying in the top two as KKR and SRH are the only other teams who can reach 20 points

-    If they win only one of their remaining four games, they can finish in the top two only if KKR, CSK, and LSG lose at least one and SRH lose at least two of their remaining matches 

-    If they lose the next three games and KKR too lose their next two games, both teams will face off in Guwahati on May 19 to decide who will finish with 18 points

Chennai Super Kings – Played: 11, Won: 6, Lost: 5, Points: 12, NRR:0.700

Upcoming games: vs GT (A) vs RR (H), vs RCB (A)

-    CSK can reach a maximum of 18 points by winning all three remaining games

-    They can only end up in the top two of the points table if KKR or RR lose their remaining games and LSG and SRH don’t win more than two of their remaining 3 and 4 games, respectively

-    If they finish with 16 points, only a superior NRR can help them leapfrog others in the top two, but they will still need KKR or RR to lose all their games and LSG and SRH not to win more than two games

Sunrisers Hyderabad – Played: 10, Won: 6, Lost: 4, Points: 12, NRR: 0.072

Upcoming games: vs MI (A), vs LSG (H), vs GT (H), PBKS (H)

-    Winning all four remaining games will take SRH to 20 points. They are the only other team apart from KKR and RR that can reach 20 points

-    They must beat LSG in order to avoid them from reaching 18 points

-    If they finish with 18 points, they will end up in the top two only if RR or KKR lose all their remaining games and CSK and LSG lose at least one of the three remaining games

-    If they finish at 16 points, they can finish at top two only if either KKR or RR lose their remaining games with a big margin and hurt their NRR, and CSK and LSG lose at least one of their remaining games

Lucknow Super Giants – Played: 11, Won: 6, Lost: 5, Points: 12, NRR: -0.371

Upcoming games: vs SRH (A), vs DC (A), vs MI (A)

-    LSG must win the remaining three in order to finish with 18 points

-    They must beat SRH and expect them to lose one of their last two games in order to prevent them from reaching 18 points

-    They will only qualify in the top two if either RR or KKR lose their remaining games and CSK lose at least one of their remaining three games

-    Since they have a -0.371 NRR, they must have big wins in the remaining three games, which are all away-from-home 

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