Qualification scenarios: MI are officially out; SRH among favourites for playoffs

Sunrisers Hyderabad completely decimated Lucknow Super Giants on May 8 (Wednesday) and took a big step towards confirming their spot in the playoffs of the Indian Premier League 2024. Chasing a target of 166, the Sunrisers got the required runs in just 9.4 overs.

SRH’s seventh win took them to third place on the points table and improved their NRR from -0.065 to +0.406. Meanwhile, LSG’s NRR dropped from -0.371 to -0.769. 

Lucknow lost big, but it was Mumbai Indians who suffered the most. 

Mumbai are officially out

With SRH defeating LSG, Mumbai became the first team to be knocked out of the playoffs race. The five-time champions, currently placed at No. 9, have won four of their 12 encounters and can now maximum get to 12 points. 

For them to stay alive, Hardik Pandya and Co. needed Lucknow to beat Hyderabad. There are already three teams - Rajasthan Royals, Kolkata Knight Riders and SRH -  with 14 or more points. LSG and Delhi Capitals (both 12 points) will play each other on May 14 and even if the game is washed out, both of them will get to 13 points.

SRH qualification scenario breakdown

Points accumulated: 14

Remaining fixtures: Gujarat Titans (H), Punjab Kings (H)

Maximum points they can get to: 18

Current Net Run Rate: +0.406 (fourth-best in the competition)

What more SRH need to do to qualify?

Hyderabad’s remaining two games are at home, and are against teams placed below them on the points table. Ideally, the Men in Orange would want to win both these matches and not rely on other results to qualify for the playoffs. 

But what happens if they win one and lose one? If that happens, SRH will end the league stage with 16 points and that might not be enough to progress further. At least one of Rajasthan or Kolkata will end with more than 16 points, leaving four sides with a chance of finishing the league stage with 16 points.

If that happens, the qualification will come down to the NRR.

What if SRH lose both their remaining games? 

If that happens, the Sunrisers will end the league stage with 14 points. Then for them to qualify, Hyderabad will need Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings and Gujarat Titans to lose at least one of their remaining fixtures. 

They also wouldn’t mind Chennai Super Kings winning at least two of their remaining three matches and finishing in the top three. DC and LSG will have to lose one of their remaining two matches and when they play against each other, the result margin shouldn’t be big. That way SRH will qualify on the basis of superior NRR.

If CSK lose all their remaining matches, that will make SRH’s life even easier. 

Can SRH finish in the top two?

Well, they can. Their first task would be to beat both GT and PBKS and then expect CSK to lose at least one of their last three games. KKR’s NRR (+1.453) would almost be impossible to touch, so SRH could target RR’s spot. 

If Sanju Samson and his men lose their last three games, Hyderabad could finish with more points. Even if RR win one, SRH could still topple them on the basis of NRR. If RR end up winning two, SRH will need KKR to lose all their remaining matches. 

As of now, SRH’s chances of finishing above KKR and RR are very bleak. 

LSG qualification scenario breakdown

Points accumulated: 12

Remaining fixtures: Delhi Capitals (A), Mumbai Indians (A)

Maximum points they can get to: 16

Current Net Run Rate: -0.769 (second-worst in the competition)

How can LSG qualify?

The Super Giants would surely be unhappy about the loss but they would be more unhappy about the manner of the defeat. With SRH chasing down the target in less than 10 overs, LSG’s NRR has taken a big hit which could cost them a spot in the playoffs. 

Lucknow first need to beat Delhi and Mumbai and then would want SRH to lose both their games. If not that, CSK will have to lose two of their last three fixtures. Both teams are way ahead in the NRR front, so LSG will only progress further if one of CSK or SRH don’t get to 16 points. 

LSG’s NRR is way too bad for them to qualify with 14 points, even if they get all the other results in their favour. 

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